MORE than five million jobs – that is almost 40 percent of Australian jobs that exist today – are in the firing line from the digital revolution, research by the Committee for the Economic Development of Australia (CEDA) has found.

A new CEDA report shows a ‘moderate-to-high’ likelihood of those jobs available today disappearing in the next 10 to 15 years, due to technological advancements. While there are new jobs being created by the same digital economy forces, questions remain over the future of work in Australia. 

CEDA chief executive Stephen Martin said Australia and the world is on the cusp of a new but very different industrial revolution “and it is important that we are planning now to ensure our economy does not get left behind”.

Professor Martin said, in releasing CEDA’s major research report for 2015, Australia’s Future Workforce? that changes were especially going to impact Australia’s regional economies.

Prof. Martin said as part of the report, the National ICT Australia (NICTA) group researchers had examined the probability of job losses due to computerisation and automation in Australia and in each local government area across the country.

“This research shows that in some parts of rural and regional Australia in particular there is a high likelihood of job losses being over 60 percent,” Prof. Martin said.

Prof. Martin said there will be new jobs and industries that emerge, but if Australia is not planning and investing in the right areas “we will get left behind”.

“The pace of technological advancement in the last 20 years has been unprecedented and that pace is likely to continue for the next 20 years,” he said.

“While we have seen automation replace some jobs in areas such as agriculture, mining and manufacturing, other areas where we are likely to see change are, for example, the health sector, which to date has remained largely untouched by technological change,” Prof. Martin said.

“Creating a culture of innovation must be driven by the private sector, educational institutions and government. However, government must lead the way with clear and detailed education, innovation and technology policies that are funded adequately.

“Our labour market will be fundamentally reshaped by the scope and breadth of technological change, and if we do not embrace massive economic reform and focus on incentivising innovation, we will simply be left behind in an increasingly competitive global marketplace.

“Currently the commitment needed to link education and innovation policy with funding is appalling compared to other countries and Australia’s industry innovation strategy is woefully underfunded compared to global competitors,” Prof. Martin said.

“For example the five Industry Growth Centres announced last year by the Federal Government should be critical in driving innovation but only $190 million has been allocated over four years.

“In comparison, the UK Catapult Centres, which they are based on, have been allocated almost $3 billion over the same period.

“The German Fraunhofer Network, the Netherlands’ Top Sectors Strategy and US National Manufacturing Institutes have had even larger allocations.

“If we expect to compete with countries such as these as a smart and innovative economy then we need to get serious about how we invest in driving innovation.”
Prof. Martin said Australia also needed to reconsider how it would deal with reskilling workers as particular fields of employment disappear.

“The CEDA report highlights the policy approach taken by Denmark to reskill mature age workers,” he said.

“The Danish approach is three pronged – greater flexibility around hiring and firing, generous unemployment benefits and substantial programs to help unemployed people gain new skills. Often these programs start before a person is even retrenched.

“In comparison Australia has the lowest levels of unemployment benefits of the OECD for a single person recently unemployed and often programs to assist with skills training do not start until a person has been unemployed for some time.

“The Danish model is underpinned by the same mutual obligation approach to Australia but rather than send people off on work-for-the-dole projects, it is training people with the skills their economy needs,” Prof. Martin said.

“The Danish policy, while more expensive initially, makes long-term economic sense because it ensures people return to the workforce more quickly and with the skills the economy needs.

“As more job restructuring occurs in the Australian economy this type of policy is going to be vital.

“It is likely some tough decisions about the Australian labour market will need to be made in the next decade; we’ve already had a taste of this with the decline of the car manufacturing industry.

“However, if we develop the right policies now, we have the potential to reduce the impact of these challenges and ensure our economy remains robust.”

The Australia’s Future Workforce? report will be launched at the Sofitel Melbourne at noon on June 16.

The Australia’s Future Workforce? report’s contributing authors include Telstra chief scientist and technology officer, Hugh Bradlow, Deakin University vice-chancellor Jane den Hollander, and IBISWorld founder and chairman, Phil Ruthven.

The launch event will be followed by a series of events being held in Adelaide, Gold Coast, Brisbane, Sydney and Perth.

The CEDA research report Australia’s Future Workforce?can be downloaded from the CEDA website here.

www.ceda.com.au 

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Digital Business insights by John Sheridan >>

LEADERSHIP requires the ability to formulate and then describe a vision – that offers a worthwhile destination with a set of goals along the way.

Leadership requires the ability to explain the journey, along with an acceptable timetable.

“Where are we going?” “We are going this way.” “And this is how we are going to get there.”

It’s obvious really.

And in the same way that a destination is important for the scout troop as they head off into the wilds, it is even more important for a country heading into the future.

Where are we going as a nation? That is what everybody wants to know.

Yet nobody at a political level seems to be able to answer this question.

It is a simple question. Where are we going? 

What are the objectives for our country? We need to know these first before we set off on any journey because the destination affects the direction we go in. 

Simple stuff.

But if you asked anybody in this country the question, “Where are we going as a country?” you would get a range of answers, none of which are particularly inspiring.

“I haven’t got a clue.” “Backwards.” “To the dogs.” “Off a cliff.” “In circles.” “Back to the 50s.” “Into the next available iceberg.” I have heard them all.

No mention of bright futures.

Which is, of course, madness.

As individuals we rarely act like this. We don’t usually pile into the family car and drive around meaninglessly for hours unless we want trouble. Accompanied by a host of angry questions.

As individuals most of us have some idea of where we are going. So you would think this is even more important for a nation.

But there is no commonly agreed upon vision. There is nobody on the bridge of the ship of state steering us in the right direction. Or any direction.

Our ‘leaders’ are preoccupied with the state of the ship, with how much fuel there is in the bunker, but have no idea of where we are going.

And in the absence of direction, our ‘leaders’ have become preoccupied with blame. “They got us lost.” “They don’t know where we were going either.” “It’s their fault.”

Irrelevant. It no longer matters.

There is not much talk of a destination, only discussion of the state of the nation.

So where are we? Where are we going next?

“The mining boom has finished.” “We are living beyond our means.” “We don’t have enough income.” “We have to fix the budget.”

But what for?

If we don’t know where we are going, what our goals are, and what it takes to achieve them, then what are we fixing the Budget for?

We are fixing the budget so that we can….do what?

We have lost touch with reality.

We should be heading somewhere as a country. We should have goals. Goals that are articulated, accepted and understood by everybody.

Not a woolly 2050 plan, full of vague objectives. But a 2015 plan with a clear destination.

With broad sweeping and simple objectives.

As individuals, we should have some idea, and intuitively we do. The majority of Australians did not buy into the Federal Budget last year because it was perceived as unfair and unequitable.

So fairness and equity are probably things most of us can agree upon as objectives even if we can’t necessarily agree how to achieve them. That is why the term “fair go” has resonance in this nation. It is something we agree upon.

We should be heading towards a cleaner, smarter, healthier, fairer, more resilient, open and transparent, and collaborative society. We should be translating these broad objectives into many simple steps that will take us there.

We need more jobs. We need to cultivate and support value-adding industries such as advanced manufacturing, biotech and clean energy. We need to support start-ups, create smarter cities, expand intelligent connectivity – the internet of things, improve transport and vastly expand rail, and share inspiring stories of export success. There are many.

We need to own the capacity and capability to expand, and cultivate and manage these things within Australia. There are some serious implications concerning sovereignty, IP, investment and reward involved in this journey, and we have to understand these clearly and partner with other nations when necessary and on a shared value basis.

It is a disruptive time and it is easy to get distracted by fear, uncertainty and doubt when such a lot is going on. That is what magicians rely on, when using sleight of hand. It is important for us not to get distracted.

We have to be clear on our objectives and that clarity only comes when we know where we are going.

We need to address climate change, digital disruption, homelessness. We need to work on fair go – equality, the obvious lack of leadership, access to food and water, health and the informed patient and most of all jobs.

We know that there should be no children or indeed anybody sleeping on the streets at night, but there are. We know Aboriginals should be better off than they are today. We know we need to broaden the base of industries that offer jobs, so we are not beholden to any one industry to the extent they gain unfair advantage.

We need to put Australia at the centre of our vision, not allow multinationals to overly influence, define, decide and own the results of our national investment.

There is a balance required between our best interests and the interests of other nations or multinational companies and we need to be clear on where that balance lies. A fair go again.

Jobs are disappearing because of automation, robotisation and computerisation. Jobs are being transformed as we move into the new digital world. This problem is far bigger than most suspect.

Real unemployment is more than 13 percent and 2-3 times that for the young. We have to significantly broaden the base for jobs, and put more resources into education, not less.

How do we motivate and leverage our enormous collective capability and resources to move in the direction we want to go as a society?

That requires leadership. And a clearly defined vision. With a destination and a beginning for the journey.

There is a much bigger discussion to be had on this subject.

Fixing the car is important but only if you intend to drive it. And if you do, you need places to go, destinations to visit.

Deciding how much fuel to put in the tank is important but this must relate to the direction and length of the journey.

We need to shift the discussion from fixing the Budget. That is a secondary issue, not the primary issue at this time.

The primary issue is simple.

Where are we going?

Once we know that, we know exactly what we need to get there (budget).

Control of destiny. Leadership not confusion.

We have become overly concerned with what must be cut and limited, and not concerned enough with what must be imagined, designed and created.

This is time for reform.

But where are we going as a nation? What are our goals? What is the vision? What is the direction?

That is where we need to begin our reformation.

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John Sheridan is CEO of Digital Business insights, an organisation based in Brisbane, Australia, which focuses on helping businesses and communities adapt to, and flourish in, the new digital world. He is the author of Connecting the Dots and getting more out of the digital revolution. Digital Business insights has been researching and analysing the digital revolution for more than 12 years and has surveyed more than 50,000 businesses, conducting in-depth case study analysis on more than 350 organisations and digital entrepreneurs.

http://www.db-insights.com/

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THE PwC Chair in Digital Economy at QUT in Brisbane uses an ancient university term to describe a role that is all about the future. For a start, one person will not sit in that chair – it is a collaborative chair, and the first to be set in place in Australia.

There are many people – researchers, technologists, business leaders, futurists, students and even political leaders – who will rise from that ‘digital chair’ to help shape the digital transformation in Queensland. However an academic figurehead for the digital chair will be selected in coming months, QUT has announced, utilising Prof. Rob Perrons in the acting capacity for now. 

Sponsor PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) is clear about why Brisbane’s QUT campus is the ideal base for this initiative.

“Of all the cities in Australia, I can say that Brisbane and this region of South East Queenland offers by far the most collaborative environment we see,” Trent Lund, lead partner for PwC’s Innovation and Digital Ventures sector said at the launch event on April. “That gives it a huge advantage as the digital world is all about collaboration.”

Brisbane’s Chief Digital Officer, Cat Matson agreed, saying the digital chair built upon and expanded the city’s digital strategy.

“The chair is an ecosystem,” she said, “it’s not one person, it’s a collaborative team.”

Ms Matson said the PwC Chair in Digital Economy was an important and timely development for Brisbane, which could take a global lead in digital business development. She said Brisbane already had a range of global leaders in digital business – naming online accommodation leaders Wotif and Fruit Ninja mobile game developer Halfbrick Studios among others – but there were other early stage digital companies coming through that needed support to realise their potential.

“It is a challenging new business world … we have to find ways to get companies to market fast,” Ms Matson said. “After all, we don’t have five years now to get a new product to market; we have a few months before it is copied or overtaken.” 

Associate professor at QUT, Rob Perrons, who has been the acting PwC Chair in Digital Economy during the establishment phase, predicted the region could become a global leader in the development of digital business.

“This (chair) has been set up to ‘keep it real’,” Assoc. Prof. Perrons said. “We believe we can dominate in many of those subsets (of the digital economy), particularly those in which we have a lead at the moment.” He mentioned Brisbane’s collaborative environment for innovation as a significant advantage that the digital chair could help accelerate and connect with new markets.

“How about innovation as a service?” he challenged the launch audience at QUT on April 23.

Queensland Government’s Assistant Director-General for the Digital Productivity and Services Division of the Department of Science, IT and Innovation, Andrew Spina said the government was right behind the digital chair initiative.

He said it would help the Queensland Government to both participate in and lead the state’s digital transformation.

“The government has to lead in digital innovation,” Mr Spina said, “and companies will follow – but then we get out of the way.” He said the government was developing a digital capability model and had made a number of initiatives to assist the sector recently – especially its new policy that allows direct procurement from Queensland ICT companies up to a value of $500,000.

PwC Australia CEO Luke Sayers said digital technology was “absolutely fundamental to Australia’s prosperity in the years ahead”.

“Our own PwC research shows innovation and digital technologies together have the potential to increase Australia’s productivity and raise GDP by 3.5 percent and $136 billion over the next 20 years,” Mr Sayers said.

“In order to make the most of this opportunity, we need students and researchers in the fields of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics. For this reason we are delighted to be able to partner with innovative organisations like QUT in working towards securing Australia’s future.”

The PwC Chair in Digital Economy is a joint appointment between the QUT Business School and its Science and Engineering Faculty.

“The rapid development of the digital economy has the potential to have as big an impact on our work and society as the industrial revolution,” QUT School of Management head, Prof. Rowena Barrett said. “We are in a period of profound change and the chair will play a key role in researching how new technologies can best be harnessed to take full advantage of the opportunities in the new economy.”

QUT School of Information Systems head, Prof. Michael Rosemann, said the chair would have a research and advocacy role focused on industry engagement, policy development and thought leadership.

“We want to move from watching the digital economy to understanding it,” Prof. Rosemann said. “We want to help replace fear and entrepreneurial faith-based decisions with fact-based decision making.”

He said the chair would help to academically and strategically “lead the development and application of research-informed policies and the design of a curriculum that benefits the emerging generation of talent”.

www.chairdigitaleconomy.com.au

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