By Leon Gettler >>

IFM Investors chief economist Alex Joiner has no idea how long the forthcoming recession will last.

Bloomberg Economics, S&P Global and ANZ have tipped that the coronavirus pandemic will push Australia into recession.

Joiner says economists are now working through how long it will last.

“We don’t know because what we’re seeing is the unfolding of the coronavirus in advanced economies,” Mr Joiner told Talking Business. 

“We’ve seen China trying to limit the spread of the disease. Probably their numbers are a little generous in terms (of them) putting some numbers out to suggest they have it under control, I’m not sure that’s the case, but what we’re looking at is places like Italy and South Korea and these sorts of places where the number of people infected is continuing to rise.

"What we’re seeing in those economies is the government increasingly putting restrictions on the way people can behave and therefore they are not taking part in the activity with the economy.

“So we haven’t seen the peaks in the numbers of infections in advance economies so no-one is game to call an end to the spread of the disease so obviously economies are going to be in this downturn while the spread of the disease keep going.”

AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY WEAK

He said Australia’s latest growth figures showed the economy was weak.

He said the national accounts showed growth at 2.2 percent, but scratching beneath those figures showed the economy was struggling.

“What notable to me and other economists is how weak the private sector is,” Mr Joiner said.

“We’re seeing no growth from the private sector at all. Business investment is particularly weak.”

He said one of the key contributors to growth in the last quarter was residential stamp duty as the property market recovered. It added 0.16 percent to the 0.5 percent growth rate recorded for the last quarter.

SMALL BUSINESS IN CRISIS

Another point that was notable were the figures for the income of the small business sector.

That measure has been going backwards for six consecutive quarters which meant the small business sector was in a poor state entering the coronavirus period.

“It was a low quality outcome for the Australian economy,” Mr Joiner said.

He said Treasury and Reserve Bank of Australia had looked at the impact of fewer tourists and students coming to Australia.

“What they haven’t looked at is the changed behaviour of businesses and consumers,” Mr Joiner said.

“Obviously businesses are in phases where they are very cautious and they’re winding back investment and they’re probably looking at their payroll. And then the consumer is obviously very cautious.

“We’ve seen some changed behaviours in supermarkets and the consumer is going to be much less inclined to go out and spend in the shops.

“Then you’ve got the additional burden on the economy of things being shut down and cancelled so there is a behaviour of people being very risk averse and not doing what they otherwise normally would do and that will also impact on the economy.”

WHAT WILL RBA DO NEXT?

With the RBA cutting  rates again to 0.25 percent, the market focus is now on what the RBA’s quantitative easing will look like.

He said additional measures from the RBA included ensuring the free flow of credit to businesses.

“We don’t want to see a situation where the Reserve Bank has low interest rates but the banks won’t be lending any money,” Mr Joiner said.

“The Reserve Bank needs to ensure there is a free flow of credit into the economy if we want to see businesses continue to behave in a way we would like them to through this challenging time,” he said. 

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Hear the complete interview and catch up with other topical business news on Leon Gettler’s Talking Business podcast, released every Friday at www.acast.com/talkingbusiness.

By Leon Gettler >>

CENTRAL BANKS  around the world are cutting interest rates to deal with the coronavirus but it won’t help, Rabobank economist Michael Every has warned.

The coronavirus (Covid-19) and its impact is unprecedented and central banks don’t have a clue how to deal with it, according to Mr Every.

“The question I have to ask, and I think I know the answer myself as I am asking it, is: Are lower interest rates going to be a cure for a deadly virus? Are lower interest rates a cure for having your supply chain disrupted so you can’t get key components? Are lower interest rates a cure for everyone staying home and not buying anything? And the answer is no, no and no,” Mr Every told Talking Business.

“It’s a nonsense to believe central banks are going to get us out of this, were a worst case scenario to unfold in terms of this virus getting much uglier. If it were to get worse, I don’t see what the RBA for example is going to do about it. Or the Fed, Or the ECB. Or the Bank of Japan. Or the people at the Bank of China. 

“It can provide infinite liquidity to companies that are without a key component, without which they have no business. It can provide infinite liquidity to households that don’t want to spend it because they’re not going out.”

DOMINO EFFECT KNOCKS ON

Michael Every said the problems in China would create a domino effect in which companies around the world will not be able to get the components they need to produce the goods to sell to consumers.

He said it will be a demand shock and a supply shock. The impact is impossible to calculate but it is clear everyone will be swept up in it.

“Really at root here, what this crisis is underlining is how fantastically, how magnificently stupid globalisation was as an idea because you build an entire pyramid of just-in-time very complex supply chains centred on China, or in Australia’s case, providing input into a China-centric supply chain, and of course, the whole thing is massively fragile if anything goes wrong anywhere,” Mr Every said.

“We are constantly pricing for perfection, which is insanity when you consider in the long run, perfection doesn’t last that long.”

LIQUIDITY HOLDING PATTERN

Mr Every said banks can provide small businesses with more liquidity during the coronavirus crisis, but as with the global financial crisis, that puts everything in a holding pattern.

When business conditions return to normal in several months time, the small restaurants or factories will have a bigger debt load, and that will be a problem for the banks.

“We are heading for really uncertain territory on multiple fronts,” he said. “The RBA hasn’t managed to get inflation right, they can’t get employment right. What on earth makes them think they can sort out a virus as well?”

The bond markets are now forecasting a recession and Rabobank has pencilled a mild US recession this year, which will result in a technical global recession.

“That was pre-virus. If you throw the virus into the mix, it’s a no-brainer that you’re going to be looking at a recession,” Mr Every said.

“Everywhere you look, there are red light flashing suggesting this could be a very strong breeze which blows over what was a feeble upturn at the beginning of 2020, which pushes us into a genuine global recession.”

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 Hear the complete interview and catch up with other topical business news on Leon Gettler’s Talking Business podcast, released every Friday at www.acast.com/talkingbusiness.

ends

A SHORT, SHARP global recession, driven by the coronavirus is a real risk according to the CEO of one of the world’s largest financial advisory organisations. He is urging investors "to take steps now to build and protect their wealth".

The warning from Nigel Green, the chief executive and founder of deVere Group, comes as confirmed cases rise and governments and central banks around the world are taking increasingly aggressive measures to try and combat the economic impact of the outbreak.

Among the steps being taken on Tuesday, the US Federal Reserve announced that it would slash interest rates by half a percentage point. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is drafting an action plan to deliver a “powerful and timely” response to the coronavirus outbreak, and Australia signals it may resort to Quantitative Easing.

“The outbreak is developing and evolving quickly and no-one accurately can predict what will be the economic fallout," Mr Green said.

“However, I believe that based on what we currently know, the risk of a coronavirus-driven short, sharp global recession this year is significantly growing. 

“The epidemic has already dented anaemic global economic growth this year and it can be expected to slow further, then contract, as the fear of the virus takes hold.”

“The outbreak has already sent the stock market into bouts of volatility not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, severely disrupted global supply chains, shuttered factories, grounded flights, closed attractions and cancelled major events. Entire powerhouse cities in Asia and Europe are nearly shut down.

"Multinational companies have warned that coronavirus will severely hit profits. Workers are being evacuated and forced to work from home and to avoid travelling," Mr Green said.

“We can see both supply and consumer demand are already being impacted in key sectors, such as travel and tourism, hospitality, manufacturing and retail, and it is going to extend to others.  

“This scenario is then likely to feed on itself: a lack of consumer confidence and spending, lack of business investment, more job cuts, which means even less spending and demand, which leads to further job cuts.

“Unfortunately, companies already on the edge are likely to fold as we have seen this week.

“Against this backdrop, we should prepare for a short-term but severe global recession," Mr Green said.

“However, the world economy is likely to bounce back strongly. We could even see revived global growth as economies rebuild and adapt; and especially so if central banks and governments step in to actively kick-start growth.

“The short-term economic impact of coronavirus is likely to affect capital markets, which in turn affects investor returns.  

“Coronavirus has shifted the landscape. Investors are urged to review their portfolios to ensure that they are still on track to create, build and generate wealth.”

The deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and its high-net-worth clients. It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12 billion under advisement.

ends

By James Brett and Angus Dorney >>

THE CORPORATE WORLD is littered with buzzwords. From ‘agile omni-channel gamechangers’ to ‘disruptive synergies’. These words might have meant something once, but now they’re just empty syllables – the junk food of enterprise vocabulary.

But there’s one phrase fast approaching buzzword status —and we shouldn’t let it because it’s far too important: customer centricity.

Customer centricity is deceptively simple. It basically means genuinely caring about your customers and their needs. It denotes a belief that nurturing a customer will nurture your business. 

Importantly, it’s about more than just creating flashy experiences that look great but are ultimately shallow. True customer centricity is about providing solutions that solve real problems and improve your customer’s quality of life.  

When done well, it drives the kind of fierce customer loyalty and goodwill that can insulate an organisation from a thousand shocks and drive profits that others envy.

LARGE ENTERPRISES CHALLENGED

Despite its apparent simplicity, customer centricity is particularly difficult to achieve in large enterprises.

In many of these organisations, cultures, processes and legacy technologies designed with a transactional – or even exploitational – view of the customer have dominated.

In these cases, the problem is usually compounded by executive leadership – who drive and maintain the entirely wrong types of corporate culture. 

Consider the fallout from the recent Royal Commissions into Aged Care, Financial Services, and Disability. Many of the organisations delivering mea culpas now, delivered media releases in the past trumpeting their ‘customer-obsession’ and ‘customer-centricity’.  

At its core, customer centricity in an enterprise requires innovation. When your key considerations are shareholders and financial metrics, it’s impossible to innovate. This is because true transformation and customer-centricity are long-term strategies, they are an unwinding of bad habits and a nurturing of good ones.

This is particularly challenging for large organisations where it’s difficult to determine what to fix first and how to do it fast enough to keep pace with the rapidly changing needs of the customer and increasing competition. 

BADLY LEADERSHIP INCENTIVISED

So how have these institutions been able to last so long if serving the needs of their customers hasn’t been their core reason for being?

Historically, the reason enterprises have ignored the needs of the customer is because executive leadership has been incentivised to do so.

With their remuneration tied solely to financial metrics and, by extension, short-term financial goals, customer needs have been a distant second to investor returns.

Suncorp is a perfect case of the short-term aims of shareholders trumping the long-term strategy of improving the customer experience.

Former chief Michael Cameron, and Microsoft Australia’s one-time managing director Pip Marlow, wanted to make Suncorp more customer-centric and turn the bank into the ‘Amazon of Financial Services’.

Disgruntled investors killed the plan off when it didn’t immediately generate revenue and now Suncorp will return to its core business of banking and insurance.

DRIVING CUSTOMERS TO DISLOYALTY

We’re currently facing an age of customer disloyalty, and so we should be. What looks like ‘disloyalty’ to a business, is actually the customer searching for products and services that offer them real value.

There is now more choice than ever before and finding the alternatives has never been easier.

Despite this, most incumbents seem to think they’re too big to fail – if their lack of action on serious customer-centric innovation is any indication.

True innovation has to be tied to the needs and desires of the customer. It isn’t easy. Sometimes it involves turning your back on the historical sacred cows of your business – such as when Netflix jettisoned its mail order DVD business to pursue video streaming.  

Simply increasing the efficiency of existing business lines isn’t customer centric. Offshoring thousands of roles to Bangalore or the Philippines isn’t innovation. All it does is squeeze more revenue from an existing offering, so to call it anything other than ‘shareholder centric’ is a sham.

Business leaders need to bring their investors on board and champion an embrace of true customer-centricity – and they need to do it now.

Start-ups are already disrupting previously untouchable industries like financial services and insurance (FSI), telecommunications and energy.

They’re succeeding because, for them, customer-centricity is not just a buzzword.

About the authors

James Brett is a leading CTO, digital strategist and author, having led digital transformations for some of Australia's largest and best-known brands. Angus Dorney is co-CEO of digital product engineering firm, Kablamo, a team of Australian specialists who led the digital transformations of Australia's largest media organisations, and are now bringing that expertise to enterprise IT.