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Agribusiness

CSIRO highlights five food mega-trends for farmers

NEW RESEARCH from the Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation (RIRDC) and CSIRO highlights five key ‘megatrends’ that will significantly impact the future of Australian agriculture in the next 20 years.

Through its National Rural Issues program, RIRDC, in partnership with CSIRO, undertook this ‘big-picture’ research to help Australia’s agricultural sector anticipate and proactively plan for change.  

It details the megatrends implications, opportunities and challenges for Australian farmers.

“Research of this scale and foresight is critical to ensuring Australia’s agricultural sector maintains and grows its vibrancy, sustainability and competitiveness,” said RIRDC managing director Craig Burns.

“While the projected increases in global demand for food could be perceived as an insurmountable challenge, our farmers, who supply 93 percent of our domestic food needs and are highly export oriented, are renowned for their capacity to adapt, innovate, achieve productivity gains despite declining terms of trade, and respond strongly to risks. They are well-placed to address and capitalise on these megatrends.

“The research reinforces that the predicted wealthier and choosier Asian consumer of 2035 represents a key opportunity for Australian farmers to drive new markets in that region, underpinned by the need for ongoing research and development to ensure future farming systems improve productivity. However we need to be smart and be on the front foot as we are not the only one with our eyes on these opportunities.” 

CSIRO principal scientist in strategy and foresight, Stefan Hajkowicz, who co-led the research, agreed the megatrends insights pointed to a bright future for Australian agriculture.

“Overall conditions are set for strong demand growth in food and fibre products across Asia along with opportunities for diversification as diets within the region become increasingly westernised,” Mr Hajkowicz said.

“The ‘where did my food come from?’ factor will be a big deal for future food consumers. Establishing provenance, quality and safety will allow us to fetch market premiums. And, there’s nothing low-tech about Australian agriculture. It is high tech and well placed to go super high tech.”

These megatrends are:

  1. A hungrier world: by 2050, there will be 70 percent or 2.3 to 2.4 billion more people on earth, who will need 60 to 70 percent more food than what’s currently available. 
  2. A wealthier world: increasingly wealthier consumers in developing economies will drive demand for more and diverse foods. In Asia alone, with over 1 billion people expected to move out of poverty as average incomes rise from US$12,000 to US$44,000 per person by 2060, beef consumption is predicted to rise 120 per cent, while dairy consumption will double by 2050.
  3. Fussier customers: empowered by information, the consumers of 2050 are likely to expect food to be nothing less than healthy, nutritional, clean, green and ethically produced.
  4. Transformative technologies: advanced digital, genetic and materials science technologies will enable farmers to improve how they produce food and fibre products, while innovative sensory systems and data analytics will create highly integrated ‘farm to fork’ supply chains. Farmers will be able to make better decisions and manage risk more effectively, while consumers will have greater access to trace the origins of their food, putting production methods under the spotlight.
  5. Bumpier ride: Australian rural industries can expect a changed risk profile, which will call for new and deeper levels of resilience to withstand shocks associated with climate change, environmental change and globalisation.

 

How can Australian agriculture become more competitive?

Complementing the megatrends insights, another area of research considers new tools to measure and influence Australian farm competitiveness in the global marketplace.

Undertaken by the Australian Farm Institute, this research investigated the potential for the development of a competitiveness indicator or index as a decision-making tool to enhance agricultural competitiveness.  

While the research highlighted a number of limitations in developing such an index, including the lack of robust, internationally-comparable agriculture sector statistical data, it found that a ‘dashboard’ of indicators of national agricultural competitiveness could be achievable.

“A case study using the dashboard to compare the agricultural competitiveness of Australia and the USA illustrated that this tool provides a more useful approach, but only to the extent of providing a starting point for further analysis,” Australian Farm Institute  executive director Mick Keogh said.

“To progress this, the quality, consistency and availability of national and international agriculture sector data needs to improve.”

Both reports and accompanying summaries can be downloaded from the RIRDC website: www.rirdc.gov.au

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ACCC announces cattle and beef market study forums

THE Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) is inviting people involved with cattle and beef markets to participate in a series of regional forums.

The forums are a part of the ACCC’s recently announced market study into the cattle and beef industry. 

“The purpose of these forums is to hear directly from farmers and other people in the cattle and beef industry about competition and fair trading issues that concern them,” ACCC commissioner Mick Keogh said.

The forums will be held at:

  • Wodonga, Victoria, on Tuesday June 7, 2016
  • Toowoomba, Queensland, on Friday June 10, 2016
  • Mount Gambier, South Australia, on Monday June 20, 2016
  • Dubbo, New South Wales, on Friday June 24, 2016
  • Bunbury, Western Australia, on Friday July 1, 2016.

The commissioner said the forums were an important part of the ACCC’s public consultation for the market study, which examines competition, efficiency, transparency and trading issues across the supply chain. Attendees will have the opportunity to raise their concerns directly with ACCC commissioners.

“We are in the early stages of the market study, and consultation is ongoing.  We are interested in a range of issues. For example - competition between buyers of cattle, the strength of competition among bidders at saleyards, and the transparency of cattle pricing information,” Mr Keogh said.

“If you have any issues you wish to raise, but you are not able to attend a forum, I encourage you to call or email us and have a chat.”

During June and July, ACCC staff will also visit a number of regional areas where forums are not being held.

www.accc.gov.au/cattlestudy.

Background:

The ACCC announced the cattle and beef market study on April 5 2016 and released an Issues Paper on April 7, 2016.

Key issues to be covered by the market study include:

  • competition between buyers of cattle, and suppliers of processed meat to downstream customers
  • the implications of saleyard attendees bidding on behalf of multiple buyers
  • impediments to greater efficiency, such as bottlenecks or market power at certain points along the supply chain
  • differences in bargaining strength, and the allocation of commercial risk between cattle producers and buyers
  • the transparency of carcase pricing and grading methods
  • seeking information on the share of profits among the cattle and beef production, processing and retailing sectors
  • barriers to entry and expansion in cattle processing markets.

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Indonesia’s food demand to quadruple

AGRICULTURAL food consumption in Indonesia is projected to quadruple from today’s levels by 2050, according to the recently-released What Indonesia wants report by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).

ABARES executive director, Karen Schneider, said the rise was projected on the back of expected sustained economic growth, population increase and continued urbanisation. The Indonesia report from the latest in the What Asia wants series by ABARES provides great incentive for the Australian agribusiness sector. 

“Over the longer term, we expect per person incomes will increase significantly, leading to increased food consumption and more diverse diets in Indonesia,” Ms Schneider said.

“The projected rise in food consumption is characterised by expected higher intake of meat, dairy products, fruit and vegetables.”

Assuming no major policy changes to 2050, food imports are projected to be an increasingly important component of Indonesia's food supply in the coming decades.

“Indonesia has a strong agriculture industry, characterised by the production of both food and non-food cash crops, such as natural rubber, copra, palm kernels, coffee, cocoa and spices,” Ms Schneider said.

“Production of non-food cash crops in Indonesia has comparative advantage and this is expected to result in strong competition with local food production for resources.

“While the real value of Indonesia’s agrifood production is projected to more than double to US$173 billion in 2050 (based on 2009 US dollar values), food imports are expected to become an important part of Indonesia’s food supply.

“The real value of agrifood imports is projected to rise more than 20-fold from 2009, to US$152 billion in 2050 (in 2009 US dollars).

“In 2050, imports of beef are projected to reach US$26 billion, compared with US$500 million in 2009. Imports of dairy products are projected to be US$7 billion in 2050, compared with US$400 million in 2009.

“For fruit and vegetables, the value of imports is expected to increase by more than US$24 billion and US$10 billion, respectively, between 2009 and 2050.”

What Indonesia wants is part of the What Asia wants series, which analyses future food consumption and trade trends in Asian countries over the long term.

The report was discussed at the 19th Indonesia–Australia Working Group on Agriculture, Food and Forestry Cooperation in late 2015.

The other reports in this series are What Asia wants, What China wants and What India wants.

www.agriculture.gov.au/abares

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Ag in the Asian Century upbeat: InterFinancial

ANALYSIS of Australia’s agribusiness sector, reinforced by the mood at the recent Ag in the Asian Century conference, is upbeat “and not surprisingly” according to mergers and acquisition specialists for the sector, InterFinancial.

InterFinancial’s food and agribusiness sector director David Hassum reported that Australian agriculture producers had already honed in on a few key advantages the national sector holds and were “bearing fruit already”. 

Facilitated by Toowoomba and Surat Basin Enterprise (TSBE), with the support of the Regional Council, the conference succeeded in delivering practical knowledge to participants on innovation and export opportunities in the food and agribusiness (F&A) sector, Mr Hassum said.

“For us, a few key themes emerged from the insightful and diverse array of speakers,” he said. These backed up predictive reports InterFinancial had been distributing to its clients for several years.

“Australian food exporters should define where and how they can be most competitive,” Mr Hassum said. InterFinancial has recently produced information charts – drawn from information published by FAOSTAT, World Bank, United Nations and NAB – that show China’s population “already receives a relatively high percentage of its calorie intake from meat”, he said.

“As per capita income increases, meat consumption won’t increase, rather people will substitute for higher grades of meat, nuts, fresh fruit and milk.

“So the opportunity in China is for branded and niche markets. There are still opportunities in other Asian countries for volume exporters, though.”

Mr Hassum said another strong message from the conference was that “exporters need to do their homework, looking at individual markets and products rather than just targeting ‘Asia’”.

“Of course that’s no different than any other market, and we are more than accustomed to dealing with red tape,” Mr Hassum said.

A key message was that Australia is already seen in China and across Asia as a reliable source of clean, high quality produce.

“We need to do all we can to improve our logistics networks and use our technology expertise in order to satisfy increased demand and maintain our position as a preferred trading partner,” Mr Hassum said.

One of the most interesting aspects of the conference was that “the general vibe in the region was surprisingly upbeat”.

“On an earlier visit this year the atmosphere was notably sombre, with business owners strapping themselves in for a tough year following the conclusion of the construction stage of large scale oil and gas projects,” Mr Hassum said.

“While uncertainty still exists in the oil and gas sector, opportunities in other sectors such as agribusiness seem to be driving optimism across the board. Perhaps this optimism emanates from the ‘can do’ attitude of the community, of which there’s no better example than the Wellcamp Airport, the first greenfield public airport built in Australian in 50 years and the first to be privately funded.

“This is a true ‘build it and they will come’ project, and once other key infrastructure planks are in place we see this as being a real catalyst for growth in the area, particularly in the agri sector.

“With that said, investment is also about timing. The F&A sector has been hot for a few years now, and for good reason,” Mr Hassum said.

“However, sectors inevitably swing in and out of favour, and it’s always better sell on a positive trend rather than trying to pick the peak of the market.

“Overall, the event was well organised, relevant and insightful, and we highly recommend that those in the sector attend in future years.”

www.agintheasiancentury.com.au

www.tr.qldgov.au

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Major grains industry forum set for Bendigo

THE VICTORIAN grains industry will launch into the 2016 cropping season when the Grains Research and Development Corporation (GRDC) hosts a major forum in Bendigo in February to support growers through the coming year.

The GRDC Grains Research Update, on February 23 and 24, this year entitled ‘Informed decisions and driving change’, will be attended by agronomists, consultants, researchers, growers and other grains industry personnel committed to ensuring the state’s cropping sector remains productive and profitable well into the future.

GRDC Southern Regional Panel chair, Keith Pengilley said advances in technology, cutting-edge advice and outcomes from GRDC-funded R&D offer the state’s growers the opportunity to make positive changes to their farming systems. 

“With production costs continually rising, growers and their advisers are looking for ways to generate on-farm efficiencies,” Mr Pengilley said. “When seeking out ways to do that, the best place to start is the annual two-day Update which is being held in Bendigo in 2016.”

The two-day forum, held in Ballarat in previous years, will be conducted in Bendigo in 2016. The change of location has been driven by attendances out-growing the Ballarat venue and the recent opening of the impressive Ulumbarra Theatre complex in Bendigo where the 2016 Update will be located.

The Update will feature a line-up of expert speakers from throughout Australia and overseas who will provide insights into research developments and advice about progressing cropping enterprises.

Considered the state’s premier grains research, development and extension (RD&E) forum, the Update will showcase innovative thinking, products and practices.

Eyre Peninsula (South Australia) grower and consultant Ed Hunt will delve into the management of profitability and risk in a grain business, while CSIRO’s Saul Cunningham will look at the potential threat to neonicotinoids and their impact on bees.

Other keynote speakers include high profile Canadian agriculturalist Robert Saik, from Agri-Trend, who will outline the 10 drivers that will shape agriculture in the next decade. There will also be a panel of experts to explore how growers can make better use of their fertiliser dollar.

The Update program will offer a wide range of timely topics and issues and will provide maximum choice for attendees to construct their own preferred learning path over the two days.

Relevant agronomic issues to be covered on day one include soil moisture probes; Rhizoctonia control tactics; effective use of imagery and data; solutions for stubble troubles; cereal disease threats; blackleg in canola; integrated pest management; cereal agronomy and cultivar performance; and the value of break crops in low rainfall farming systems.

Other day one topics include best practice agronomy for pulses in the high rainfall zone; new insights into snail and slug control; subsoil manuring in the medium-low rainfall zones; and emerging research by GRDC-funded PhD scholars.

Among the subjects to be addressed on day two are best practice agronomy for pulses in the medium and low rainfall zones; dual purpose cropping; emerging herbicide challenges; herbicide residues in soil; crops for hay; understanding healthy soils; weather forecasting; best practice with fungicides; and the mechanisms of natural weed suppression.

GRDC Update Dates page has the latest details.

 www.grdc.com.au

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Comment sought on new bio-security regulations

DRAFT regulations under the Biosecurity Act 2015 have been released for public comment.

Federal Agriculture and Water Resources Minister , Barnaby Joyce, encouraged all interested parties to have a say on the draft regulations for approved arrangements, the Inspector General of Biosecurity and infringement notices. 

"These three regulations will form an important part of the new Biosecurity Act 2015, and are key to how the Australian Government will manage our biosecurity system in the future," Mr Joyce said.

"Approved arrangements provide an opportunity for businesses to enter into a voluntary arrangement with the Commonwealth to manage the biosecurity risk associated with their activities; the Inspector General of Biosecurity is an important statutory position to provide independent oversight of our system; and infringement notices are one of the tools we have to punish wrongdoers.

"So these are incredibly important regulations that we want your feedback on. The government has engaged in meaningful consultation throughout the development of our new biosecurity legislation and listened to feedback about how we can modernise it.

​"I am pleased to continue in that commitment, and invite all interested people and organisations to have their say—all comments received will be considered in final drafting of the regulations."

Minister Joyce said the biosecurity system was at the heart of a profitable agriculture industry and strong farmgate returns.

"As an island nation Australia is free from so many of the damaging pests and diseases that affect other parts of the world—but with increased movement of people and goods across the world, comes increased risk of exotic pests and diseases reaching our shores," Mr Joyce said.

"Not only does our biosecurity system protect our agricultural industries, environment and economy from pests and diseases that could affect our local plants and animals, but it also underpins our favourable trading status.

"Our strong market access to a range of countries is built on freedom from many exotic pests and diseases—and with a serious biosecurity incursion we could stand to lose access to these markets.

"This is why it's so important to get these new biosecurity regulations right—because biosecurity does underpin so much of what makes Australian agriculture profitable. When agriculture prospers, our whole country and economy benefits."

Consultation is open for a minimum of 60 days.

agriculture.gov.au/biosecuritylegislation

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CSIRO develops its own research farm

CSIRO has bought 290 hectares of land at Boorowa in New South Wales to develop its agricultural research program.

CSIRO agriculture director John Manners said CSIRO would continue its world leading agricultural science from the new purpose-designed farm. 

“Establishing a new facility in a rural area allows us to take a green field approach to the site and our science,” Dr Manners said.

“This can enable us to conduct research into very new ways of farming, including the application of digital farming technologies. The new site is approximately 100 kilometres from our current site, allowing our Canberra researchers to continue their field trials on the new site.”

The purchase of the Boorowa property comes after CSIRO’s announcement of a request to the National Capital Authority to include the Ginninderra property as ‘urban area’ on the General Policy Plan for Metropolitan Canberra in the National Capital Plan draft amendment being released for consultation in September.

“The Ginninderra site has contributed to major progress in Australian science through the work of our programs in developing novel grains and sustainable and productive agricultural systems,” Dr Manners said.

Former Industry and Science Minister, Ian Macfarlane said at the time that the purchase of the new property would see the government scientific research arm boost its investment in agricultural sciences.

“Agricultural science and technologies which improve the competitiveness of Australian agribusinesses are an important part of CSIRO’s research,” Mr Macfarlane said.

“The purchase of the new farm in Boorowa ensures CSIRO’s research will continue and will better enable CSIRO to develop and deploy the latest in sustainable farming science and technology into the site.”

Federal Member for Hume Angus Taylor said the purchase was great news for the region.

“Boorowa is one of Australia’s most significant areas for primary production and I am delighted its reputation will continue to be synonymous with agricultural excellence," Mr Taylor said.

“Breakthroughs in technology have defined Australian agriculture. Hosting the customised farm research facility will ensure a long and beneficial relationship between the region and CSIRO.”

Mayor of Boorowa Shire Council, Wendy Tuckerman said the purchase of a farm in the local government area was fantastic news for the region.

“The purchase of the land in Boorowa by CSIRO has been a big win for the region,” Mayor Tuckerman said.

“We hope that this purchase brings researchers, scientists and staff to the region and pays dividends for both CSIRO and the community. We look forward to working with CSIRO into the future for the best outcomes of the region and the country.”

www.csiro.au

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