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Northern Territory's poor economy continues to subdue the property market - RiskWise research

THE Northern Territory's poor economy continues to play a part in its subdued property market with 15.6 percent price reductions for houses in the past five years and a massive 29.4 percent for units.

According to the latest RiskWise Property Research Risks & Opportunities Report, much of the negative capital growth in recent years is due to population decreases following the end of the mining boom and lack of employment, leading to high interstate emigration.

RiskWise CEO Doron Peleg said the territory was the only state in Australia that experienced population loss in 2017-18.

“While dwelling supply in relation to population growth is low and dwellings are very affordable, the low demand for housing makes the Northern Territory a risky area especially given the low level of private investment that is significantly below the growth levels during the mining boom,” Mr Peleg said.

“According to CoreLogic, Darwin house prices peaked in 2014 and fell 15.6 percent over the past five years. However, improved housing affordability slightly reduces the risk associated with houses from medium-high to medium.”

He said it was likely houses in the Northern Territory would deliver poor or negative capital growth in the short to medium term.

However, as more than 67 percent of houses in the territory were owner-occupied and held for a long period of time, he said they carried a lower level of risk than units.

“Units carry a very high level of risk to deliver negative capital growth, due to the combination of oversupply, lending restrictions and low demand,” Mr Peleg said.

“The current supply of units, while not considered high in relation to population growth, still exceeds the low demand for them.

“This is particularly the case in areas with a high concentration of off-the-plan units, such as Darwin with 2034 units in the pipeline (10.2 percent increase to the current stock). They delivered -33.7 percent capital growth over the last five years.”

www.riskwiseproperty.com.au

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WA property market remains in the doldrums - RiskWise research

WITH economic activity in Western Australia well below its 10-year average and effective unemployment significantly above the 10-year benchmark, the property market, particularly units, continues to experience weakness.

However, according to the latest RiskWise Property Research Risks & Opportunities Report, buyer confidence is on the increase in the state, particularly Perth with housing finance increasing 15.1 percent since February 2019 after a reduction of 2.4 percent relative to August 2018.

RiskWise CEO Doron Peleg said with low economic activity and high unemployment, Western Australia’s annual population growth of 1 percent was the third lowest in the country.

“As a result, the housing market, particularly units, has experienced continued weakness in recent years. According to CoreLogic, house and unit prices in Perth have declined by 8.6 percent and 9 percent in the past year, respectively,” Mr Peleg said.

“Western Australia is still in a long transition process from a mining-oriented economy and while unemployment has slightly improved from 6.1 percent in April to 5.7 percent in October, it is still projected to deliver low economic growth, a soft job market and low population growth.

“Mortgage arrears are at an alarming level with the delinquency rate sitting at 2.75 percent. While this has improved from 3.05 percent as reported in August, this number has grown over the course of several years and is now well above the Australian average. The relatively high unemployment rate also increases the risk of credit defaults.

“Negative equity also remains a major risk especially for lenders who have a concentration of loans in this market. These risks are compounded by this high rate of arrears. High-risk borrowers, combined with properties that suffer from low demand, require special attention in relation to credit provisioning.”

Mr Peleg said while Perth was "very affordable" there were a small number of suburbs where houses delivered reasonable capital growth in recent years. However, these were exceptions only.

He said despite lower interest rates (with another expected in the new year) and some loosening of credit restrictions, houses still carried a medium level of risk due to Western Australia’s economic conditions.

House prices have declined by 9 percent in the past year and in Perth, house and unit prices declined by 8.6 percent and 9 percent, respectively.

Low-performing areas for houses in the past year include Perth-North East (with -8.8 percent capital growth), Perth–Inner (-8.4 percent) and Perth-South West (-7.3 percent).

“However, the risks associated with units is even higher as they are expected to deliver poor or negative capital growth due to the combination of oversupply, lending restrictions and low demand as they are generally not attractive to families or owner-occupiers,” Mr Pelif said.

“Also, units in some suburbs are subject to voluntary lending restrictions by the major lenders, such as lower loan-to-value ratio (that is,  higher deposit). In addition, the state government tax on overseas investors further decreases the demand for new units as investment properties.”

Perth–South East has the highest rate of unit oversupply in the state with 1900 units in the pipeline (a 6.7 per cent increase to the current stock).

“The issues with construction defects in NSW and Victoria and the publicity they have received in the media mean this situation is unlikely to materially improve in the short term.

“While there have been no major construction defects reported in relation to high-rise buildings in Perth, the events in Sydney and Melbourne increase the risk of reputational damage and, consequently, lower demand for both existing and off-the-plan high-rise units.”

Visit www.riskwiseproperty.com.au

Asia Pacific Parliamentary Forum runs from January 13-15

THE 28th Asia Pacific Parliamentary Forum (APFF) will be held at Parliament House, Canberra, from January 13-15. 

The APPF will bring together more than 350 delegates from 30 countries to discuss subjects such as security, economics and trade, and regional cooperation. 

Access to the APPF is limited to parliamentary pass holders, such as accredited members of the press gallery. 

Pass holders may attend and film the opening ceremony on Monday January 13 from 11am in the Great Hall, Parliament House.

Visit appf28.org.

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FSC helps people affected by bushfires to re-set lost life insurance records

THE Financial Services Council (FSC) has launched a simple new service for Australians and their loved ones to use if life insurance policy details have been lost or destroyed as a result of the devastating bushfires.

FSC CEO Sally Loane said the life insurance industry was working together to ensure every affected Australian can check their records and be reunited with their life insurance policy details.

“There are a few scenarios where we can help, for example, if you need to make a claim for a relative in the case of a fatality; if you have been injured and can’t work; or if you have simply lost your policy documents and details,” Ms Loane said.

“It is important to note if you hold life insurance through your superannuation, you should contact your super fund directly. Life insurers don’t hold the details of individuals covered by group policies.”

For FSC to help, simply copy the text below into an email, including the consent wording, fill in the blanks and email it to us at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.:

Name of the person enquiring about the policy (your full name):
Your contact phone number:
Your email address:
Full name/s of the person/s insured under the policy:
The date/s of birth of the person/s insured:
The last known address/es:
Your relationship to the insured person/s:

I consent to the Financial Services Council forwarding the above information to their life insurance members to help find any life insurance policies insuring the people named above.

I understand that the life insurer may have to confirm that I am entitled to the information sought, including whether I am the person insured, a beneficiary, executor, trustee or guardian of the insured person.

www.fsc.org.au

 

About the Financial Services Council

The Financial Services Council (FSC) has over 100 members representing Australia's retail and wholesale funds management businesses, superannuation funds, life insurers, financial advisory networks and licensed trustee companies. The industry is responsible for investing almost $3 trillion on behalf of more than 14.8 million Australians. The pool of funds under management is larger than Australia’s GDP and the capitalisation of the Australian Securities Exchange and is the fourth largest pool of managed funds in the world. The FSC promotes best practice for the financial services industry by setting mandatory Standards for its members and providing Guidance Notes to assist in operational efficiency.

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Master Builders Australia donates $150,000 to bushfire relief

MASTER BUILDERS Australia has announced that it is donating $150,000 to support those communities affected by the devastating bushfires and the tireless and courageous efforts of those who are fighting them. 

“The Master Builders movement, encompassing Master Builders’ national office, Master Builders Associations in each state and territory and MBA Insurance Services is making this donation to support their local communities to provide assistance in the immediate crisis. It is only the first step in our commitment to help affected communities to recover and rebuild their lives,” Master Builders Australia CEO Denita Wawn said. 

“Master Builders Associations around the country are also actively encouraging their members to donate to the official fundraising appeals established by government and national charities the Red Cross, Salvation Army and St Vincent de Paul and are also providing hands on support and advice. 

“Right now we have many members and staff in regional Australia and many of those in affected communities are volunteering in the firefighting and recovery effort. Our offices in affected regions will play a vital role in helping local builders and tradies to get back on their feet,” Ms Wawn said. 

“Master Builders is also providing support to our many members in affected communities whose businesses have been negatively impacted, including with assistance and advice on insurance related matters. 

 “Helping local economies in affected towns and regions to recover will be crucial to the recovery of those communities and their residents. The Master Builders community will be working to ensure that local builders and tradespeople are engaged to conduct reconstruction work in their local communities,” Ms Wawn said. 

“Master Builders Australia and Master Builders Associations are in contact with federal and state governments as they plan the reconstruction that will follow once the current crisis has passed recognising that the nation still faces two more months of the traditional bushfire season. We are committed to continue to provide whatever assistance that we can."

www.masterbuilders.com.au

 

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PVH Corp. announces $100,000 contribution to Australian Bushfire Relief

PVH CORP, one of the world’s largest apparel companies and owner of iconic brands, including Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger and Van Heusen, has announced a A$100,000 contribution to the Australian Red Cross Disaster and Recovery Fund.

A company spokesperson said the contribution specifically supports immediate rescue and relief efforts as the unprecedented bushfires sweep through Australia, as well as long-term recovery and rebuilding.

PVH expanded its presence in Australia last year with the acquisition of Gazal Corporation Limited, a long-time business partner in Australia and New Zealand, most recently as PVH’s joint venture partner in PVH Brands Australia.

“We are devastated by the tragic bushfires impacting the people, communities and wildlife in our beautiful country,” said Michael Gazal, PVH Australia chairman. “Our thoughts are with everyone affected by this disaster. We thank the brave firefighters, volunteers and emergency personnel for committing their time and resources to the recovery efforts.”

All contributions made at Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger and Van Heusen stores in Australia during the month of January will be donated to the Australian Red Cross Bushfire Disaster Relief and Recovery Fund. No purchase is required.

About PVH Corp.

PVH is one of the most admired fashion and lifestyle companies in the world. The PVH brand portfolio includes the iconic Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger and Van Heusen, iZod, Arrow, Speedo, Warner's, Olga and Geoffrey Beene brands, as well as the digital-centric True&Co. and Nancy Ganz intimates brands. PVH markets a variety of goods under these and other nationally and internationally known owned and licensed brands. PVH has over 38,000 associates operating in over 40 countries and $9.7 billion in annual revenues. *The Speedo brand is licensed for North America and the Caribbean in perpetuity from Speedo International Limited.

 

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Aussies unite for firefighters in multi-million dollar Bushfire Relief Auctions

LLOYDS Bushfire Relief Auctions will be online this week with all proceeds going directly to fire affected communities, fire-fighters and volunteers with the first auction online now featuring a 2010 AFL Premiership Medal of the Collingwood Magpies, owned by Dayne Beams.

“In less than 24 hours since going live, our phones have been ringing off the hook, we are astounded with the amount of support from the public, companies and celebrities donating items to support fellow Australians in need,” Lloyds Auctions chief operations officer Lee Hames said.

“There will be zero costs and zero fees with 100 percent of funds donated to charities and fire services including the Red Cross, Salvation Army, Wires and the RFS,” he said.

“We anticipate to now hold a series of auctions in this next week which could raise millions of dollars due to the huge response from people wanting to donate whatever they can, whether it be an item, service or experience,” Mr Hames said.

“We will be continuing to publish hundreds of lots in the coming days so we encourage the public wanting to get involved to keep checking the website for updates where I can say we have some very exciting and popular items up for grabs.

“Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews and NSW Rural Fire Services have stated that cash is critical as charities struggle to sort through donated goods, so this is a perfect way of turning donated items into cash for these communities,” Mr Hames said.

“As these unprecedented bushfires tear through Australia, we want to help as many fire-affected lives as possible.”

To assist, contact www.lloydsauctions.com.au/donatenow.

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Climate Council: Understanding future extremes must be central to recovery plan

THE CLIMATE COUNCIL has welcomed the Federal Government announcement of $2 billion for bushfire recovery, but warns effective recovery must build in resilience to a rapidly changing climate.

“The unprecedented and horrific bushfires show us clearly that Australia is unprepared for worsening extreme weather, ” Climate Council CEO, Amanda McKenzie said.

“As we come to terms with the impact of these fires we must also understand that the Australian climate has changed forever. The southeast is hotter and fire conditions are more dangerous than they were in the past,” she said. 

“The process of rebuilding must carefully assess how the climate has changed and is likely to continue to become more extreme in the future. This means there will be hard decisions to make in terms of how we rebuild.

“The good news is we can rebuild in a way that both tackles climate change and builds greater resilience for communities. For instance, decentralised renewable energy can provide power to communities that may otherwise have been cut off, while also reducing reliance on fossil fuels,” Ms McKenzie said. 

Money for recovery without a coherent climate policy will be wasted.

“The government’s focus on continuing Australia’s heavy reliance on fossil fuels means that extreme weather will worsen dramatically over the next decades. We cannot afford it,” Ms McKenzie said. 

“The government must use these fires as an opportunity to fundamentally change their approach. For over six years the Federal Government has had no credible climate policy. Today the economic, personal and environmental costs of failing to tackle climate change are staring us all in the face,” she said. 

“Despite the warnings, the Federal Government has been flatfooted in its response to this disaster, partly because they failed to accept the fact that the climate has changed. This cannot happen again,” Ms McKenzie said. 

climatecouncil.org.au

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Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance now takes bitcoin donations

THE Australian Taxpayers' Alliance, which claims to be the nation’s largest grassroots advocacy group representing taxpayers, today announced they are accepting donations through bitcoin in a move to give their supporters more financial privacy.

“The world is naturally moving away from traditional cash transactions and the government has threatened to begin restricting the use of cash. But Australians still have a right to privacy, something big banks don’t afford their customers,” ATA policy director, Emilie Dye said.

“Many don’t want the government, their banks, and their friends knowing how they spend, and how they give their hard earned money. We are giving our supporters another option to feel more secure.

“In the modern social-media driven world, data is one of the most precious commodities we hold. Banks shouldn’t get information about your spending habits without anything in return. Bitcoin, like cash, competes with big banks and credit card companies forcing them to do better," Ms Dye said.

“Many have begun to worry Australia will see negative interest rates. Aussies should have have a variety of viable saving and spending options instead of relying on corporate banks which are notorious for charging high fees.

“The tide is moving in the direction of cryptocurrency. We are getting on board by offer our supporters the option to use bitcoin when they donate.”

www.taxpayers.org.au

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UK Travellers in the sights of Tourism Australia’s new Matesong campaign

THE Australian Export Tourism Council (ATEC) has welcomed Tourism Australia’s innovative new campaign targeting UK visitors which draws on the strengths of one of the country's 'national treasures': actor and singer Kylie Minogue.

“Australia has had a long and strong connection with visitors from the UK and the new ‘Matesong’ campaign will help to strengthen that bond,” ATEC managing director Peter Shelley said.

“Putting Australia in front of the British audience at a time when everyone is watching is a masterstroke in timing that will provide great exposure for our destination.

“We have so many assets -- from our beaches to our wildlife, our food and wine -- and TA’s latest campaign featuring the much loved Kylie Minogue uses one of our great human assets to remind Brits of our strong connection," Mr Shelley said.

“The UK remains one of our largest spending markets and despite a softening which has coincided with the Brexit uncertainty, it will continue to be a valuable source for our industry in the coming decade.
 
“This campaign will remind Brits they can retreat from the cold of the English winter and the turmoil of political uncertainty to our ‘sun drenched’ destination where they are always warmly welcomed.”

www.tourismdrivesgrowth.com.au

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Positive outlook for southeast Queensland's housing market

HOUSES in southeast Queensland are enjoying higher demand and improved capital growth as buyer confidence rises.

According to the latest RiskWise Property Research Risks & Opportunities Report, housing finance in Queensland is showing signs of improvement with an increase of 16.9 percent since February 2019 after a reduction of 7.7 percent relative to August 2018.

However, according to RiskWise CEO Doron Peleg, at this stage only modest (i.e. 3-5%) price growth is expected with the likelihood for strong (i.e. double digits) price increase low.

Mr Peleg said while the Sydney and Melbourne markets were experiencing continued (while improving) issues in relation to housing unaffordability, southeast Queensland enjoyed a more stable market, good population growth and healthy rental returns, making it attractive to both home buyers and property investors.

However, he said while houses were enjoying a resurgence in demand, this was not the case for units.

“Units in Queensland, particularly in high-supply areas and other places where the demand for units is consistently low (and houses enjoy strong popularity as a dwelling alternative), also carry a higher level of risk,” he said.

“One of the reasons for this is because the demand for units among owner-occupiers is low.

“Also, in addition to APRA’s lending restrictions, units in some suburbs are also subject to voluntary lending restrictions by major lenders, such as lower loan-to-value ratio due to oversupply.

“Units in inner-city Brisbane have the highest level of risk with a very large number of properties in the pipeline and increased rates of defaults for those bought off-the-plan. In fact, many areas with oversupply have been labelled 'danger zones' by lenders and also have low sales volumes.”

Mr Peleg said with many of these over-supply areas also presenting a major financing barrier due to requirements for large deposits, in particular off-the-plan units, there was a high level of risk that should be further assessed based on the absorption of the current supply into the market in the next two years and the reduction in commencements.

He said the impact in the short to medium term would be gradually mitigated by a reduction in these dwelling commencements alongside strong population growth.

Mr Peleg noted that the Queensland market greatly varied between high and low-performing areas and special attention should be given to the different job markets across the state, particularly since the unemployment rate had risen from 5.9 percent in April to 6.5 percent in October.

“This is especially the case in the mining towns in Central and North Queensland, that generally experience low demand, versus houses in popular beachside suburbs on the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast that have delivered strong capital growth,” he said.

“It is important to remember that a softer employment market is well connected with low population growth, lower demand for dwellings and price reductions.

“The risk associated with the Queensland market should be monitored closely at the SA4 level, as deteriorating employment conditions are likely to have a significant negative impact on dwelling prices.

“The mining towns still present a relatively higher investment risk due to a very large proportion of investors with negative equity and insufficient growth drivers since the end of the boom.”

www.riskwiseproperty.com.au

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