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Aussies to spend $46.7 billion this Christmas - ARA

THE Australian Retailers Association (ARA) and Roy Morgan Research annual Christmas spending figures indicate Australian shoppers will spend $46.7 billion in retail stores over the Christmas trading period from November 15 to December 24, 2015.

ARA executive director, Russell Zimmerman, said Australian consumers are tipped to spend 3.6 percent more on Christmas at Australian retail stores this year than in 2014, a fantastic rate of growth in light of current levels of consumer sentiment and the raising of interest rates by the major banks this month.

“While the ARA would obviously be thrilled to see higher levels of growth, given the current climate and underlying factors, we’re confident that retailers will see a robust Christmas trade that builds on the amount spent across the country last year,” said Mr Zimmerman.

The ARA has partnered with research partner, Roy Morgan Research, to put together the projections, which factor in aspects such as unemployment and consumer sentiment. In 2014, the ARA and Roy Morgan correctly predicted Christmas spending would reach $45 billion, representing growth of 4.3 percent, with actual sales hitting $45.2 billion for the period.

The ARA has provided pre-Christmas spending forecasts for more than 20 years.

“Victorian retailers particularly will be set for a rush in sales over the next six weeks, with forecast growth of 4.6 percent for the state, while Queensland shoppers will also be considerably active in stores to the tune of 4.2 percent growth,” Mr Zimmerman said.

“Category-wise, retailers in the ‘other retailing’ category will be the winners this year, with 5.6 percent growth expected, while apparel stores will also see a 4.7 percent boost.

“The ARA and Roy Morgan have had almost pinpoint accuracy in our forecast for the last few years, and we’re pleased to see that consumers will continue to hit the shops in their droves in 2015.

“While the week before Christmas is traditionally the biggest shopping week of the year, there’s plenty of consumers who like to be prepared and get in early, with a good deal of Aussies starting to tick items off their Christmas lists from mid-November onwards,” he said.

See tables below for a full break down of the ARA and Roy Morgan’s predicted category and state pre-Christmas sales for November 15 to December 24.

ARA ROY MORGAN PRE-CHRISTMAS 2015 SALES PREDICTIONS

November 15 - December 24

2015 Pre-Christmas Sales Growth by State

State 2014 pre-xmas

Actual ($mil)

2015 pre-xmas

Forecast ($mil)

Predicted growth

(%)

NSW 14377 14854 3.3%
Victoria 11174 11688 4.6%
Queensland 9200 9590 4.2%
South Australia 2945 3026 2.7%
Western Australia 5253 5393 2.7%
Tasmania 882 907 2.7%
Northern Territory 489 493 0.8%
Australian Capital Territory 815 824 1.1%
NATIONAL 45137 46775 3.6%
         

(ARA/ROY MORGAN)

 

2015 Pre-Christmas Sales Growth by Category

Category 2014 pre-xmas

Actual ($mil)

2015 pre-xmas

Forecast ($mil)

Predicted growth

(%)

Food 18545 18987 2.4%
Household goods 7839 8144 3.9%
Apparel 3436 3598 4.7%
Department stores 2901 3018 4.0%
Other 6112 6456 5.6%
Hospitality 6305 6573 4.3%
NATIONAL 45137 46775 3.6%

(ARA/ROY MORGAN)

 

About the Australian Retailers Association:

Founded in 1903, the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) is the retail industry’s peak representative body representing Australia’s $284 billion sector, which employs more than 1.2 million people. The ARA works to ensure retail success by informing, protecting, advocating, educating and saving money for its 5,000 independent and national retail members throughout Australia.

For more information, visit www.retail.org.au or call 1300 368 041.

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NRMA’s Group CEO appointment fits customer focus model

THE Business Council of Co-operatives and Mutuals (BCCM) would like to congratulate the National Roads & Motorists' Association and Mr Rohan Lund following his appointment as Group CEO of Australia’s customer owned business. The NRMA is a founding member of the BCCM.

BCCM CEO, Melina Morrison commenting on the news said:

"Customer owned businesses are experiencing a strong period of growth for the past 24 months as shown in the BCCM's 2015 National Mutual Economy Report with a 14% year-on-year increase in combined annual turnover for the Top 100 Australian co-operative and mutual enterprises (CMEs).

"Customer owned banking is another sector showing strong growth as KPMG’s Mutuals Industry Review 2015 has shown.

"The appointment of Mr Lund with his experience in communications and customer service is fitting, given it is an inherent and unique advantage of businesses owned by their customers."

The Business Council of Co-operatives and Mutuals (BCCM) is the national peak body representing the co-operative and mutual models of enterprise in Australia. Formed in 2013, the BCCM is led by the chief executives of Australia’s leading co-operative and mutual businesses and is the only organisation uniting the entire, diverse range of member owned business. 

www.bccm.coop

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ICC calls on governments for collaboration with business to tackle climate challenge

WITH LESS than two weeks to go to the UN Conference on climate change (COP21) and the conclusion of the G20 last weekend, the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) continues to engage its network in more than 130 countries to advocate for a climate deal that engages business to fully address the climate challenge.

"ICC has underscored the need for the G20 to show leadership in engaging and collaborating with the private sector in an unprecedented way to tackle the climate challenge," said Kersten-Karl Barth, Chair of the ICC Commission on the Environment and Energy.

As energy investment is expected to be the largest single area of overall infrastructure investment over the coming decades requiring US$1-2 trillion per annum over the coming decades - engagement of the private sector will be critical.

As the lead business representative to the UNFCCC, ICC supports an ambitious global agreement which works with business to speed emissions reductions and build climate resilience.

Invited by French Foreign Affairs Minister Laurent Fabius to speak on behalf of business and industry NGOs at the pre-COP meeting involving in Paris last Sunday, ICC Secretary General John Danilovich said: "Businesses are already innovating to develop the technological, organizational and financial solutions needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to changing climate patterns.

"But to scale up these solutions we need enhanced collaboration between business, and more importantly, between the public and private sectors."

Mr Danilovich led a business delegation at the G20 Summit in Antalya, Turkey in what was an important staging post ahead of COP21.

Representing an ICC delegation at the latest UNFCCC negotiations in Bonn, Germany last October, Andrea Bacher, ICC Policy Executive said: "Business is a key driver in implementing climate solutions and should be anchored in the COP21 agreement in order to be able to leverage the expertise, experience and innovation of the private sector."

ICC national committees all over the world will also be promoting an ambitious global climate agreement which works with business with a series of events throughout the month of November:

  •  Held on 11 November, ICC Sweden hosted the seminar "Business, Energy and Climate: Before and after Paris" on the state of play of the negotiations a few weeks before COP21;
  • ICC Russia hosted the round-table discussion "UN agreement on climate change: the role of business in the shaping of climate policy" on 13 November;
  •  USCIB, ICC US affiliate, is organizing a COP21 Preparatory Meeting for U.S. Business on 17 November in Washington D.C.

Follow ICC on the road to COP21 at cop21.iccwbo.org

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Aust. Refrigeration Association makes submission to Federal Government on environmental gases

THE Australian Refrigeration Association has made a submission to the Federal Department of the Environment regarding their Review of the Ozone Protection and Synthetic Greenhouse Gases Management Act (OPSGG MA).

The OPSGG MA is the Act that gives expression to the Montreal and Kyoto Protocols in Australia. It is the central piece of legislation determining the practices of the refrigeration and air conditioning industry. It specifically prohibits the intentional release of HFC & HCFC refrigerants. HCFCs are Ozone Depleting Substances. HFCs (and HCFCs) are high global warming materials that are the focus of the current review of the Montreal Protocol.   
 
The submission itself is complex because the topic is complex. The summary provided below is highly critical of the options and documents offered by the Department of the Environment for the reasons explained. To fully appreciate our concerns one must consider the source of those concerns: http://www.environment.gov.au/protection/ozone/legislation - review
 
Purpose:  The OPSGG Review asks the wrong question. The question that should be asked is: “How should regulation of and guidance to the HVACR industry be provided by the federal government”?  The Review focuses on how Australia should phase down HFC refrigerants without recognising that this policy development requires recognition of the refrigerants that will replace HFC refrigerants. We need to consider the regulatory changes to enable HFC phase down including the ways and means of enabling and encouraging the industry to transition to low GWP refrigerant based technology.  
 
Context & Scope:  The Review fails to explain that HFC emissions will become a large proportion of global CO2 / CO2e emissions if HFC use and emissions are not phased down.  It is clear that there will be global agreement to this important international initiative and Australian regulatory requirement by way of amendments to the Montreal Protocol.  Australia is capable of and must show leadership in the achievement of this important task. If we don’t it will not happen as effectively as it could. We should not expect others to support this important policy if we don’t. There is major economic value to Australia in reduced use and emissions of HFCs through the use of natural refrigerants based technologies.
 
Externalities and Economics:  The Review fails to recognise that HFC emissions are an externality and should be treated as such.  The high environmental cost of HFC emissions and the costs to reduce HFC emissions can and should be borne by the HVACR industry. The Review fails to recognise that the current OPSGG MA and its administration does not address the commercial incentives for contractors and scrap metal dealers to cause high HFC emissions due to lack of enforcement.

Our view is that Australia can reduce the cost of the HVACR industry by $10B PA; perhaps $150B in cost savings over the period to 2036. About $8B of annual savings will be delivered by refrigerant selection and the use of low cost, highly energy efficient HVACR technology. This is the potential of the Review. Clearly this potential is far greater than the costs & benefits offered by the Review and the proposed HFC phase down options.

Natural Refrigerants:  The Review fails to recognise the value of natural refrigerants in replacing HFCs. We have provided to DoE and its advisers, and they have access to, extensive proof of the value of NRs in all sectors, but ignore it. The explanation that this is a constitutional limitation should not enable the federal government to avoid showing the regulatory leadership to recognise the high value of natural refrigerant-based technology. It is nonetheless comprehensively ignored.  
  
Enforcement:  The Review fails to recognise that the lack of enforcement of the OPSGG MA is a fundamental driver to HFC emissions because there is no risk for contractors to profit from intentional emissions. It also fails to recognise that end of equipment life emissions are rampant because of failure to degas prior to shredding even though the Expert Group recommends better end of life management regulations and practices.
 
New Technology: The Review fails to recognise that Australia is a leader in HVACR innovation that could make a major contribution to the use of HVACR technology that does not give rise to HFC emissions. There is a significant export development opportunity in this regard.
    
Cost Benefit Assessment: The Review fails to recognise that the cost of the HVACR industry, in Australia, could be reduced by $10B pa. It focuses on a series of options for HFC emissions reduction that fall well short of the opportunity to reduce HFC emissions by at least 50% by 2030 and in so doing reduce the cost of Australia’s HVACR services dramatically.
 
Flammability and Toxicity: The Review perpetuates the myth that hydrocarbon refrigerants are more flammable than synthetic refrigerants. The fact is that all refrigerants are flammable excepting CO2 air and water.  It fails to recognise the toxicity of synthetic refrigerants.
 
Work Health & Safety: The Review argues that WH&S is a state responsibility that the OPSGG MA cannot address. This is a fundamental error that gives rise to a series of inaccurate assertions and assumptions. Most importantly the view that the OPSGG MA cannot address WH&S considerations because of the alleged constitutional constraint.
 
In fact the amendments to the Montreal Protocol can and should be interpreted as requiring the use of low GWP refrigerants that require new WH&S safety considerations. The Review also fails to recognise that the vast majority of the HVACR industry wants nationally consistent HVACR licensing.
 
The Review correctly recommends a high degree of education and training to enable transition to low GWP refrigerants but fails to recognise that governments at all levels have a major role in this regard, particularly by way of nationally consistent HVACR industry licensing.
 
We note in our submission a series of factual errors in the WH&S report provided to the DoE.
 
Training:    The Review has little to say about HVACR training despite the central role it plays in the impact of the OPSGGM and the performance of the industry.  It is clear that government leadership is required in this regard and the OPSGG MA can play an important role by making funding available and by guiding the industry as to the training and educational requirements.   
              
Bias:   The proposed options and the supporting documents are heavily biased in favour of outcomes that will serve the synthetic refrigerants industry. They are similarly biased against both the natural refrigerant-based technologies and the innovation that is obviously available, but ignored.
The synthetic refrigerants industry generates about $18 B pa in revenue worldwide on behalf of a relatively small number of multinational companies (all synthetic refrigerants are imported whilst natural refrigerants are largely locally manufactured). The equipment manufacturers and suppliers that offer equipment designed to use synthetic refrigerants generate about $150B pa in revenue worldwide. It is entirely clear that the synthetic refrigerants industry has a great deal to loose if HFC refrigerants are replaced by natural refrigerants.
A direct consequence of the relative strength of the synthetic refrigerants supply chain is that there is a large number of people and organisations that speak on their behalf and denigrate natural refrigerants. Inevitably a consultant in this field, in seeking to interview the members of the industry will experience the high presence of synthetic proponents and the relatively low presence of natural refrigerant proponents.

However technology assessment and emissions reduction is not a democratic matter. The commercially driven opinion of the synthetic refrigerants industry does not make it right. A far more balanced, science and evidence based, and ambitious treatment of the Review is required.  

Recommendations
The ARA will provide recommendations for change to the OPSGG MA in a subsequent submission. In the mean time we have recommended that the time available for submissions be extended by at least one month and much more importantly that the review be rebased and restarted to recognise the need for federal government leadership in the HVACR industry.

You can view the full submission here

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Four-in-five Vic. regional tourism businesses do not support the continuation of grand final eve public holiday

SEVENTY-NINE percent of tourism businesses in regional Victoria do not support the grand final eve public holiday continuing in 2016, according to a survey conducted by the Victoria Tourism Industry Council (VTIC).

“Regional tourism businesses throughout Victoria are sending the Andrews Government a clear message that this holiday must be retracted,” said VTIC Acting Chief Executive Erin Joyce.

“The majority of tourism operators are small, family-run businesses under significant cost pressures already. They have been hit hard by the additional expense of this public holiday.”

Ms Joyce’s comments came as VTIC released the findings of its survey on the impact of the grand final eve public holiday on regional businesses.

The survey, which received over 120 responses from regional operators, shows the holiday put significant cost pressures on business, with over half (55 per cent) of respondents reporting that they recorded a loss for the day. Twenty three per cent of respondents reported that they did not open on the day at all.

Seventy one per cent of respondents who operated on the grand final eve public holiday were forced to cancel the shifts of regular staff and work themselves, or with family members, in order to keep costs down.

In addition, 69 per cent of respondents said that the holiday did not benefit their region.

“We are regularly told by operators that the holiday is a terrible idea and these results are further evidence that the vast majority of businesses did not benefit overall from the holiday. Businesses that experienced an increase in revenue still suffered from a higher wages bill, with only one-in-three businesses making a profit on the day,” said Ms Joyce.

“On behalf of tourism businesses throughout Victoria we will continue to campaign to see that this holiday is not repeated in years to come.”

The Victoria Tourism Industry Council (VTIC) is the peak body for Victoria’s tourism and events industry, providing one united industry voice. Tourism and events are growth industries for Victoria and contribute $19.6 billion to the state economy each year and employ more than 200,000 people.

vtic.com.au

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