Finance & Investment

BT Financial Group drives ‘wealth platform’ with Avaloq

BT FINANCIAL GROUP is using the Avaloq Banking Suite on its new BT Panorama Operating Platform to create new opportunities for its national and international expansion.

The Avaloq implementation for BT Financial Group’s new Panorama operating system is also Avaloq’s first entry to the global wealth ‘platform’ market. 

BT Financial Group, the wealth management arm of the Westpac Group, successfully reached its first milestone in the implementation of the Avaloq Banking Suite last week, with the platform replacing seven heritage systems. It will allow more than 13,000 BT Financial Group users to manage a broad range of investments via a single application.

The first phase recently went live with the launch of the cash/term deposit component of the platform. The next deliverable, investment platform functionality, is currently being rolled out to the Panorama platform.

“The contribution of Avaloq to the first release of BT Financial Group’s Panorama operating system has been significant,” said BT Financial Group general manager for platforms and operations, John Shuttleworth.

“We are looking forward to continuing this relationship as we roll out this important new phase in Australian financial services.”

Avaloq regional general manager for Asia Pacific, Peter Scott said, “Going live with BT Financial Group is an important milestone in our expansion plans for the region. The progressive adaptation of the Avaloq Banking Suite to the Australian financial ‘platform’ sector, positions us for local growth and other markets.

“We anticipate future interest from the UK and also the Asia Pacific region, where demand for these solutions continues to grow,” he said.

The Avaloq group has developed a reputation for the highest standards in innovative engineering is understood to invest more in research and development (R&D) than any other provider for the financial industry.

Avaloq is positioned as the only independent provider for the financial industry to both develop and operate its own software. Business process and information technology (IT) outsourcing solutions (BPO) are offered from Avaloq’s BPO centres in Switzerland and Germany, while new BPO centres are being set up in Luxembourg and Singapore.

The company employs more than 1,400 banking and IT specialists and has a global customer base of more than 100 financial institutions in over 20 countries, including tier one banks in the most demanding financial centres.

Headquartered in Switzerland, Avaloq has branches in Berlin, Frankfurt, Geneva, Hong Kong, Leipzig, London, Lugano, Luxembourg, Paris, Singapore, Sydney and Zurich. It has development centres in Zurich and Edinburgh as well as a development support centre in Manila.

www.avaloq.com

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EXTRA: OneVentures launches second fund

EXTRA: AUSTRALIAN venture capital firm, OneVentures, recently launched the OneVentures Innovation and Growth Fund II, seeking to raise $100 million from institutional investors and high net worth individuals by March 2015.

The fund will invest in a portfolio of emerging Australian companies with global ambitions across healthcare, education, mobile, media, cloud computing and data, security and privacy, machine learning, sensors and robotics, and food security. 

The first OneVentures Innovation Fund, formed as an Early Stage Venture Capital Limited Partnership in 2010, raised $40 million and was supported by $20 million in funding from the Australian Government’s Innovation Investment Fund.

The fund was the first in Australia to tap into a growing trend in the Australian market for high net worth individuals and family offices to diversify their investments towards venture capital filling the gap vacated by institutional investors post-GFC.

Since then, OneVentures has closed three co-investment funds securing $30 million in additional funding for the portfolio.

“The quality of the portfolio OneVentures has assembled over the past four years is one of the best venture capital portfolios I have seen in Australia,” said Caledonia executive chairman Mark Nelson, an investor in OneVentures Innovation Fund.

The fund is trading at a premium after only four years and of its eight portfolio companies two are now operating out of Silicon Valley and one out of Boston, reflecting their successful growth into global markets.

Smart Sparrow recently closed a $10m financing and Hatchtech over $12.5m for US expansion and US FDA phase three studies respectively.

“OneVentures is demonstrating a capability to do deals of global significance,” said OneVentures managing partner, Michelle Deaker.

“Our investors value the technical experience of the partners as well as their proven entrepreneurial and business building experiences in the domestic and international arena,” Dr Deaker said. “The partners also bring experience and networks of relationships to select highly attractive investment opportunities addressing large global markets, and to manage those investments through to the exit stage.”

Dr Deaker believes there has never been a better time for investors to turn their attention to venture capital. While traditional drivers of the economy such as mining and manufacturing are slowing or moving offshore, innovative technology-based companies hold the key to driving Australian economic growth and many are now succeeding on the global stage.

“While the innovation economy has been building, Australia continues to invest substantial capital in R&D and there has been substantial activity and investment in early stage angel syndicates and incubators,” Dr Deaker said.

“However, there is a dearth of capital available to propel those developing businesses forward with later stage development and expansion capital.

“This dynamic should create downward pressure on valuations and generate scope for superior returns. We see no reason why Australia’s entrepreneurs, with the assistance of experienced venture capital firms like OneVentures, cannot compete successfully in global markets. For investors, the fund provides an opportunity to truly diversify a portfolio and gives access to emerging businesses with true breakout potential.”

OneVentures has many portfolio successes under its belt.

In 2013, Melbourne-based Hatchtech closed a $12.6m capital raising to fund phase three trials for its proprietary head lice treatment.

Paloma Mobile, based in Sydney and UK, is forming key strategic partnerships with telecommunications companies in the rapidly growing emerging economy telecoms markets such as Indonesia and Malaysia.

OneVentures recently picked up an award for Best Venture Capital deal at the World Vaccine Congress in Washington DC for Vaxxas which acknowledged the deal structure, quality of syndicate and opportunity.  The technology behind Vaxxas was awarded Australian Innovation of the year in 2012.

In addition to investments made directly out of the fund, OneVentures has also secured more than $30m in co-investments for its portfolio companies, leveraging its network of investors both nationally and internationally.

www.one-ventures.com.au

 

DEAN HAWKINS JOINS

OneVentures has also announced that Dean Hawkins was joining the firm as a partner.

Mr Hawkins has led international businesses at the forefront of TV, media, broadband, apparel and sports industries for the past 18 years, working in UK, Germany, Holland and Switzerland, including four years as global CFO and board member of Adidas, based in Germany, during which time Adidas grew its market capitalisation from €1.5b to €8b.

Since his return to Australia, he has served as chairman of International News Network Ltd (Hong Kong), and non-executive director Ten Network Holdings, Apparel Group, Leighton Contractors and I-Med Australia.  As chairman of compression garment company, Skins, he oversaw the expansion of the group sales into 30 countries world-wide including a joint venture in China.

Mr Hawkins commenced his career in investment banking with UBS and was chosen by Global Finance Magazine as one of its 'Global Corporate Finance Superstars'. He has also led a number of media organisations, collecting Emmy and BAFTA awards along the way.

Commenting on the appointment, Dr Deaker said, “Mr Hawkins complements the skills of the partners and his experience in both high growth and established businesses will be invaluable for our portfolio companies.  Mr Hawkins brings a new dimension to our team with a strong finance, M&A background and international commercial and cross-border experience. The international experience of our team is showing a marked impact on our portfolio performance as they expand into global markets and prepare for exit.”

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POSTED JULY 23, 2014.

VentureCrowd: funding startups

GOOD NEWS for innovative early stage businesses, especially those in the digital technology space. Someone in Australia has figured out a way to better fund you, buying equity.

VentureCrowd is Australia’s first online equity based crowdfunding platform and it opened for business on February 20 with more than 200 registered investors and 36 start-up businesses onboard.

The key difference with the VentureCrowd platform in dealing with Australia’s peculiar regulatory financial environment, compared with other early efforts in this space, is that it allows wholesale and so-called ‘sophisticated’ investors to take equity positions in innovative high growth-potential start-ups that have effectively been pre-qualified. Because of existing Federal laws, that are currently under review, retail investors are still excluded from the buying in.

The start-ups positioned on the VentureCrowd platform are pre-screened by what Artesian Venture Partners managing partner Jeremy Colless believes are “the best” Australian accelerators, incubators, angel groups and university programs.

“Because the cost of a start-up is dramatically reduced – tech start-ups especially – the barrier of entry is lower,” Mr Colless said of the investment appeal. “So it is different from the traditional VC (venture capital) model. 

“And now the funnel (for processing investment opportunities with start-ups) is enormously bigger. That’s why we get partners, like the incubators and universities, to do the analysis.”

VentureCrowd has been developed by Artesian Venture Partners, one of Australia’s leading early stage venture capital firms, and VentureCrowd lets start-ups pitch and secure funding online from a crowd of investors in exchange for equity in the business.

In contrast to existing crowdfunding platforms such as Kickstarter and Indiegogo, which allow people to support causes, or gain access to a new product at a discounted price, VentureCrowd offers business ownership and the potential equity upside of the start-up. 
According to Mr Colless, there are a very large number of sophisticated investors in Australia who have not previously invested in the start-up space. At this stage, he said, VentureCrowd was focusing on Australian wholesale investors and start-ups.
“The wholesale investor market in Australia is large with 207,000 wealthy individuals in Australia sitting on $US625 billion ($684 billion) worth of assets,” Mr Colless said. “Until now there have been major barriers to entry for investors in start-ups. An investor either had to have a large amount of money and time available to screen and review each potential start-up investment personally, or had to commit as much as $250,000 to a venture capital fund to qualify as a limited partner.”
VentureCrowd provides investors with a selection of start-ups from a pipeline of potential opportunities, pre-screened by its partners which includes more than 20 accelerators, incubators, angel groups and university programs. Wholesale investors can invest as little as $1,000 in a start-up.

VentureCrowd encourages investors to build a diversified portfolio of over 15 start-ups, over time, to mitigate the risky nature of the asset class.
“While traditional asset classes have been slowly recovering from the global financial crisis, the Australian start-up ecosystem has been enjoying remarkable growth,” Mr Colless said.

“The last three years have seen the arrival of an array of startup accelerators and incubators including Startmate and BlueChilli (Sydney), AngelCube (Melbourne), Slingshot (Newcastle), UOW iAccelerate (Wollongong) and iLab (Brisbane).
“Corporate incubator programs including Telstra’s muru-D and OptusSingtel innov8, and new venture capital firms such as Blackbird Ventures, Blue Sky Ventures and Square Peg Capital have contributed significantly to the growth of the start-up environment here in Australia.

“There have also been successful and sizeable technology listings on the ASX by OzForex and Freelancer. In 2014, other successful Australian start-ups such as Atlassian and Bigcommerce may see $1 billion plus listings in the US,” Mr Colless said.
“What VentureCrowd will do is provide new avenues of funding for start-ups, enable a new generation of investors to take an equity interest in early stage ventures that could potentially be the next OzForex, Freelancer, Atlassian or Bigcommerce.
“With the recent passing of the JOBS Act in the US and closer to home, (Federal Communications Minister) Malcolm Turnbull’s support for revised crowdfunding legislation, there is a decided shift in attitudes to online equity crowdfunding as an investment proposition.”
Speaking about the launch of the VentureCrowd platform, Steven Maarbani, a director of the Venture Capital team at PwC, said, “There is no doubt that equity based crowd funding is growing globally and that this is the beginning of a significant change in the way finance is delivered more broadly.
“Early stage finance is undergoing a significant evolution globally. The gap in supply of early stage capital is gradually being filled by equity based crowd funding platforms that are able to provide a more efficient and cost effective way for SMEs to obtain growth capital than traditional methods.
“Equity crowdfunding platforms are opening up the early stage securities asset class to a new group of investor, characterised principally by a desire to have greater control over their investment decisions and the flexibility to make small investments in a wide range of early stage companies. It is likely that SMSFs will be interested in the investment opportunities presented by online platforms.”
The Australian Government is currently in consultation on the issue of equity based crowdfunding. In October 2013, the Federal Government issued a discussion paper titled Crowd Sourced Equity Funding which considers legislative amendment in Australia.

If legislative changes were passed in Parliament, it would open up online equity crowdfunding to a larger proportion of Australians.
Until the current legislation changes, VentureCrowd is open to wholesale investors only and each potential investor must submit to a strict screening process in order to be eligible to invest via the VentureCrowd platform.
“While equity crowdfunding sites can provide investors with low cost, frictionless access to an emerging alternative asset class, it is important to acknowledge key risks in investing in start-ups,” Mr Colless said. “More than 50 percent of start-ups fail, and the distribution of outcomes is asymmetrical. Approximately 90 percent of the returns in a diversified portfolio will come from 10 percent of the start-ups.

“As a result, investors interested in accessing this emerging alternative asset class should look for a platform that encourages investors to build diversified portfolios of start-ups rather than the far riskier strategy of attempting to pick a small number of winners.

“I think we can show a responsible was of investing in this space – and we can help keep out the charletains.”
Some of the first startups on the VentureCrowd platform include:

TokenOne – A sophisticated security technology which allows users to log into secure sites with just a single unique TokenOne PIN

Whispa Music – An online music collaboration tool that allows musicians from around the world to write music together.

Simply Raw – A startup specialising in raw snack bars suitable for coeliac, vegan, and other dietary requirements. Currently stocked in over 200 locations nationwide.

www.venturecrowd.com.au

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POSTED MAY 2014.

Eight tips to ready SMEs for tax time

 

GETTING ORGANISED now for tax time will give small business owners peace of mind and confidence later, recommends Intuit Inc. Asia Pacific vice president and managing director Brad Paterson.

Through advice gathered by Intuit, the maker of QuickBooks Online, Mr Paterson has released eight tips to help business owners cope with the lead up to the June 30 financial year deadline – and create some deduction opportunities.

“Most small to medium-sized organisations have the discipline of quarterly business activity statement compliance,” Mr Paterson said.

“But many businesses still face the significant task of annual reporting. Whatever the reporting regime, the end of the financial year signals a vast array of deduction opportunities as well as potential threats to cash flow.”

Mr Paterson said a great start was to make an early appointment with an accountant.

Christian Schoener, director of accounting, tax and business consulting at the Sydney-based CGSA Group, said getting in early gives you time to review business results before the rush of June 30.

“If you’re using cloud accounting software, your transactions will always be up to date,” Mr Schoener said. “Then you and your accountant can estimate your likely tax position and come up with strategies that make sense for your business, and give you time to implement them.

“The Federal Budget announcement on May 13 could also affect small and medium businesses, so keep an eye out for this and talk to your accountant to help optimise your tax position.”

Mr Paterson said through its market experience, Intuit has developed eight top tips to help remove the stress of the upcoming deadline – but suggested businesses should always consult with a qualified accountant or the Australian Taxation Office for specific questions.

 

1. Be certain to get super deductions.

Even though superannuation does not have to be paid until July 28, paying employee and personal contributions by June 30 will allow time for processing delays and getting valuable deductions this year.

According to the ATO, superannuation is only deductible when paid. That means that it must be cleared through your bank account, received and recorded by the employee’s superannuation fund prior to that date. Be prepared and pay early.

 

2. Pay expenses in advance.

If your cash flow allows it, consider paying recurring expenses in advance. Things like insurances, interest, rent, conference fees, subscriptions, travel costs can mean an immediate deduction.

Note that the expense may not be eligible if it covers more than 12 months.

 

3. Claim deductions now for future expenses.

You may be entitled to claim an immediate deduction for expenses you are committed to, goods or services that have been received or work performed – even if won’t happen before year end. This includes salaries and wages, staff bonuses and directors’ fees.

 

4. Spend up – but only if you need to.

If you need to replace low-cost equipment or purchase new tools, computers or other equipment soon, consider purchasing them before June 30 to get the full tax benefit now.  

Note that you may only receive a $300 benefit for every $1,000 spent. (The company tax rate is 30 percent). Always check the ATO website for the latest updates.

 

5. Write off bad debts.

To deduct bad debts, the ATO requires you to write it off while it still exists, prior to June 30.  Review your accounts receivable with your accountant or bookkeeper to determine whether a deduction qualifies before the deadline. 

 

6. Check your assets and inventory.

Consider writing down or writing off obsolete stock. Then think about revaluing the remaining stock using one of three methods: cost price, market selling value or replacement value. Choose the method that produces the lowest stock value; if the value of closing stock is less than the value of your opening stock, you may receive a deduction. When the reverse occurs, you may generate income.  

 

7. Repay any borrowings.

If you, a family member or an associate have borrowed money from your business, you should ensure that the company charges the appropriate interest and consider making the minimum required repayments before the end of the financial year.

Failure to do so may result in the entire amount of the loan being treated as taxable income, causing you to be taxed personally at rates of up to 46.5 percent.

 

8. Pay on time; don’t overclaim.

Unpaid taxes and fraudulent claims are serious business. The ATO is actively looking to recover $17.7 billion, with 60 percent of that – some $10.6 billion – owed by small businesses. It’s critical to submit accurate returns and pay on time.

Remember that fines are calculated at a higher rate than a loan and interest on accumulating tax debt is not deductible.

 

THINK AHEAD TO NEXT YEAR

CGSA’s Mr Shoener said it was not too early to begin thinking about next year.

“If you expect your tax pay will be higher this year than next year, you may benefit from deferring income to next year and accelerating deductions into this year,” he said.

“Using credit cards to pay for tax-deductible expenditures will earn you the deduction this year, even if you don't pay for it until next year.”

Intuit’s Mr Paterson said the growing popularity of cloud-based services simplifies paying taxes for small business owners and accountants alike.

“Entrepreneurs and business owners have enough on their plate without the overhead of having to sort through incomprehensible tax and financial matters,” he said.

“Fortunately, year-end compliance is now much easier with the advent of cloud-based accounting software that’s been designed specifically for small and medium businesses.

“Throughout the year, transactions are seamlessly exported from bank and PayPal accounts, payroll is automatically calculated and integrated, all invoicing elements are captured, and debtors and creditors are a breeze to track.

“All of this means you know where you stand financially – not just at year end but at any time – saving you time when it comes to doing your taxes and giving you the ability spend more time on building your business.”

www.intuit.com

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Businesses miss out on R&D Tax Incentive through ‘ambiguity’

MANY businesses undertaking research and development (R&D) are missing out on helpful 45 percent refundable tax offsets through simple errors in record keeping. 

According to MSI Taylor Accountants’ Matt White, recent ‘definitions’ changes to the Australian R&D Tax Incentive were ambiguous and left many small businesses failing to make R&D claims and, in other cases, not receiving their eligible cash refunds, even though they were regularly undertaking eligible activities and already had existing documentation practices that satisfy the requirements.

Mr White said the Australian R&D Tax incentive was “an easy to access entitlement program that helps businesses offset some of the costs of doing R&D”.

According to AusIndustry, the two core components of the R&D Tax Incentive, which replaced the former R&D Tax Concession, are: a 45 percent refundable tax offset, equivalent to a 150 percent deduction, to eligible entities with an aggregated turnover of less than $20 million a year; and a non-refundable 40 percent tax offset, equivalent to 133 percent deduction, to all other eligible entities.

“In essence, the program aims to help more Australian-based businesses do R&D and innovate,” Mr White said.

He said the 45 percent Refundable Tax Offset, which in many cases can be ‘cashed out’, should be a crucial consideration for small business cash flow planning.

“Yet many small companies are still missing out on their opportunity to make claims and receive cash refunds due to the perceived complexity and ambiguity surrounding eligibility and the application process,” Mr White said.

The new R&D laws became effective from July 1, 2011, and introduced a greater emphasis on record keeping. They also provided a new definition for eligible activities – as either Core R&D Activities or Supporting R&D Activities.

Mr White said under the definitions, Supporting Activities needed to be either ‘directly related’ or for the ‘dominant purpose’ of supporting the Core R&D Activities.

These new definitions were ambiguous, he said.

“Key concerns were around: How to identify if the activities they were undertaking where eligible? How burdensome is the application process? What are the documentation and ongoing record keeping requirements?” Mr White said.

“As a result and due to industry, adviser and participant feedback, AusIndustry – the government department responsible for administering the Australian R&D Tax Incentive program, together with the ATO – have released various industry sector guides to help applicants identify eligible activities and understand their compliance requirements,” Mr White said.

“Released throughout 2012 and 2013, AusIndustry have prepared guidance and case studies for the ICT, agrifood, biotechnology, manufacturing, energy, and built environment sectors,” Mr White said.

“AusIndustry have also introduced a series of focus and face-to-face workshops throughout each state and in 2014, will be trialling various e-learning modules in order to reduce the perceived ambiguity and confusion around the R&D program.”

Mr White warned that to now make an R&D Tax Claim – and to potentially receive a cash refund of monies spent – companies must register their R&D activities each income year in which the activities are undertaken.

“Importantly, companies that wish to make R&D Tax claims for eligible expenses incurred during the period ending 30 June 2013 must submit an R&D Application with AusIndustry by 30 April 2014,” he said.

Mr White said MSI Taylor is part of the MSI Global Alliance whose member firms have assisted 100s of small businesses through to ASX-listed companies across a broad range of industries in identifying and preparing R&D claims “as well as helping them understand their compliance requirements”.

http://www.ausindustry.gov.au/

 

http://www.msitaylor.com.au/

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M&A on the upswing: money back on the table?

MERGERS and acquisitions (M&A) trended up in Australia in 2013, both in value and activity, capped off by the final big deal of the year: Scentre Group’s merger with Westfield Retail Trust for $11.9 billion in December.

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Mergermarket's reports on M&A uptrends in Australian markets are seen as positive economic signs.

 

Australia’s M&A activity in 2013 added up to$ 73.1 billion worth of deals in a 66.5 percent increase on 2012’s $43.9b, according to the latest report by global M&A reporting group Mergermarket, a division of the Financial Times. Mergermarket tracked an extra 22 deals, with 445 reported Australian deals in 2013 over 423 in 2012.

Significant in the mix is the growth of private equity buyouts, which have steadily grown over the past four years.

This activity peaked in 2013, according to Mergermarket research, with a 16.9 percent share of the country’s total M&A compared with 12.5 percent in 2012.

Private equity buyouts valued at $12.4b reached the highest value since 2007’s $22.6b and more the doubled the value in 2012 ($5.5bn) with a 125.5 percent increase.

Last year included two of the highest valued quarters in private equity activity since 2007. After the rise in Q2 to $5.5b in deals, a dip followed with buyouts worth $0.5b in Q3 but Q4 increased over four times the previous quarter to $4.8b.

After an absence of any transport sector buyouts in 2012 two deals targeting transport groups during 2013 amounted to $6.1b, accounting for a dominant 49.1 percent of buyout activity. A consortium led by NSW Ports won the auction of Port Botany for $4.3b which became the top buyout deal of 2013.

The other big one in the sector was the acquisition of 26.7 percent of the Port of Brisbane by Caisse de Depot at Placement du Quebec from Global Infrastructure Partners, which was valued at about $1 billion.

Another significant one was NSW Ports Consortium again, who wrested Port Kembla Pty Ltd from the NSW Government for about $760b.

Canadian investment was prominent again in the 85.08 percent stake in the Commonwealth Property Office Fund by Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and Dexus Property Group for $3.37b.

Another high profile private equity buyout in 2013 was TPG Capital LP’s takeover of poultry farmer and manufacturer Ingham Enterprise Ltd for around $1b.

Energy, mining and utilities continued to dominate the Australian M&A market overall in 2013.

Despite a drop in market share from 44.2 to 28.8 percent, the sector’s value increased 8.5 percent from $19.4b in 2012 to $21b in 2013. The financial services sector experienced a higher level of activity by both deal value and the number of deals in 2013 with 34 deals accumulating $10b, more than 10 times the $0.7b in 2012 with eight more deal announcements.

It was a spectacular end to the year, headlined by that $11.9b merger by Scentre Group with Westfield Retail Trust in December. The 22 announced deals in Q4 (matching the 22 deals in Q4 2012) amounted to $34.8b which represented the highest valued quarter targeting an Australian company since Q4 2010 ($43.2b).

Private equity exits followed a similar upward trend with 28 deals valued at $4.3b. The annual total increased 87 percent compared with 2012’s $2.3b but was far from reaching 2011’s $10.5b. Both Q1 and Q4 2013 saw private equity deals worth $1.9b which represented two of the highest quarters since 2011, where every quarter posted deal values above $1.5bn which was only seen in that year and in 2006.

Exits in the industrials and chemicals sector saw $1.3bn-worth of deals rise 232.6 percnt above the $0.3b seen in 2012. The sector had the second highest market share by value at 30.5 percent, up from 13.9 percent in 2012.

There was also been an increase in cross-border activity by value after what Mergermarket described as “a dismal 2012”.

The most notable increase was for inbound deals because there were also 13 more deals in 2013 (195 deals) compared with 2012 (181 deals).

As a result, the $31.6b in transactions increased 24.4 percent from $25.4b in 2012. A static 93 deals in 2013 aggregated $9.8b worth of deals, up 58.1 percent compared with 2012 ($6.2b).

According to Mergermarket, UBS Investment Bank retained its place at the top of the financial advisor league table by value ($30.2b) and also reached first place by deal count after advising on 28 deals, 14 deals more than in 2012 and up 340.5 percent by value.

Herbert Smith Freehills topped the legal advisor league table by value ($36b), representing a 64.1 percent increase compared with 2012.

King & Wood Mallesons rose from second place to the top of legal advisor rankings by deal count with 62 deals amounting $18.7b, five more than in 2012.

http://www.mergermarket.com/

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Emerging Asian markets likely world economic weak points in 2014 – Saxo Bank

SAXO Bank financial analysts believe emerging Asian markets will become the world’s major economic weak points in 2014 – but despite the risks they are calling it “the beginning of the end of this crisis”.

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Saxo Capital Markets research is predicting a challenging, but more positive,global investment landscape in 2014.

 

That’s because emerging Asian markets generally managed to maintain fair growth throughout the Global Recession, but now the region is realising the imbalance of huge investment met by generals falls in rates of economic growth.

Research by Saxo Bank, the parent company of Australian online trading and investment arm Saxo Capital Markets, has some revealing trends in its first quarterly insight for 2014 that considers both the macroeconomic environment and individual asset classes.

Ironically, having maintained world growth at acceptable levels throughout the current crisis, emerging Asia is tipped to become the world’s primary weak spot in 2014.

According to Saxo Bank, investment in that region has reached a staggering 43 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) while growth has fallen to barely 6 percent. Saxo Bank reasons that the “easy part” of the growth cycle is long gone, and some emerging market governments are now proactively trying to slow their economies down.

The report reasons this is not necessarily a bad thing for Asia, “which needs to cool off and reconsider its economic model”.

Europe, however, will be hit by the fallout of the troubles facing its best growth market for exports.

Beyond emerging Asia, Saxo Bank expects the global economy to accelerate from 2 percent growth in 2013 to 2.8 percent in 2014.

This uptick will be led by the US where private consumption and private investment will prove key drivers, pushing growth close to 3 percent. Tapering – in which the US Federal Reserve slows its injection of new money down from its monthly highs of about US$83 billion per month – will continue as the economy strengthens, which would imply an exit from so-called Quantitative Easing (QE) in the second half of 2014.

Saxo Bank believes the Eurozone is on the mend and likely to see growth move into positive territory of 0.8 percent in 2014, but the outlook for Germany and particularly France remains bleak, the latter having failed to spur growth outside increases in public spending.

The two year decline in inflation across the Eurozone is unlikely to reverse meaningfully this year and the argument for additional European Central Bank (ECB) easing is valid, the Saxo Bank report said – most likely through a new long-term refinancing option (LTRO), which is the ECB’s method of pumping money into the economy through extremely low interest loans to Eurozone banks.

Saxo Bank chief economist, Steen Jakobsen said, “It’s been a long time since the stars of macro indicators have aligned so perfectly.

“The good news? This is the beginning of the end of this crisis.

“The 2014-2015 period will see a transition away from quantitative easing and easy money towards better quality growth and, hopefully, a mandate for real change. The world has become so out of balance that things can only improve from here.”

EQUITIES FOR CAPITAL GROWTH

Saxo Bank’s head of equity strategy, Peter Garnry underlined in his report the continuing importance of investors holding equities in 2014 to realise “any meaningful capital growth”.

He said the relative repricing between equities and bonds would continue in 2014 as total return in equities relative to bonds remains below the equity risk premium line since 1995.

“Don’t pay any heed to those who say equities are in a bubble,” M Garnry said. “If you really want to make the most of your portfolio in 2014, the biggest risk is not being long enough on risky assets. ”

Saxo Bank forecasts a 10 percent overall rise in global equities over 2014. Its top equity picks for 2014 include General Electric, Microsoft and BNP Paribas.

Foreign exchange (FX) markets seem to be assuming the Federal Reserve will adopt a slow and steady approach to decreasing purchases, so Saxo Bank anticipates a higher US dollar (USD). However, it warned, if markets lose their nerve the USD strength could shift more prominently against the less liquid G10 and emerging-market currencies rather than the Japanese Yen (JPY) and other major currencies.

“Q1 (first quarter of 2014) will see a concerted effort to wean the FX market off QE, said John J. Hardy, Saxo Bank’s head of FX strategy.

“The Eurozone could prove a flashpoint, with the peripheral economies ready to rebel if the ECB doesn’t take stronger steps to expand its balance sheet.”

Saxo Bank’s top FX trading themes for Q1 2014 include long USDCAD, long USDJPY and long GBPNZD.

COMMODITIES FACE TOUGH YEAR

The Saxo Bank report tips another tough year ahead for commodities, with the risk of even lower prices still a possibility – an ominous sign for Australia and largely due to a decline in demand in Asia.

Saxo Bank reports demand growth has stabilised as economic growth rates in emerging economies, not least China, have declined.

The energy market will have to deal with the possibility of global crude oil supply exceeding demand for the first time in recent memory, thanks in part to the rise in non-OPEC production, and the average price of Brent crude is likely to move lower towards US$105 per barrel.

After 2013 saw gold’s first annual loss in 13 years, Saxo Bank is cautiously optimistic for its prospects later in 2014 after averaging US$1,225 USD per ounce during the first quarter.

“Raised growth expectations at the beginning of the year carry the risk that investors will once again become too optimistic about the prospects for higher prices, especially in crude oil and industrial metals,” said Saxo Bank head of commodity strategy, Ole S. Hansen.

“Strong January performances over the past three years could therefore be repeated only to be retracted later in the quarter,” Mr Hansen said.

Saxo Bank’s Q1 2014 Quarterly Outlook is available at:

http://storage.saxobank.com/TradingFloor/TradingFloor_Insights_Q1_2014.pdf

www.saxomarkets.com.au

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