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Economists embarrassed as Australia avoids recession
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Peak retail industry body the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) said the March quarter’s GDP growth of 0.4 percent confirmed economists predicting a recession were wrong and should have paid more attention to retail trends.
ARA Executive Director Richard Evans said the doom and gloom rhetoric being bandied about by our economic commentators was doing a great job of dampening consumer confidence but wasn’t providing any accurate forecasts. “Retailers are working hard to overcome this negative rhetoric and stimulate consumer spend with $10.6 billion in stocktake sales expected over June which is a 2.7 percent growth* on last year’s $10.3 billion spend,” Evans said. “Economists have been shouting ‘recession’ for the past six months and today they have egg on their face. “These are the same economists who didn’t predict the economic downturn in the first place. These are the economists who failed to listen when retailers detected a drop in consumer spend in late 2007. Instead, interest rates were raised in an attempt to rein in consumer spend that was already drying up. “At the moment there is a lot of good economic news and retailers are predicting improved growth from the September quarter. “Retailing is the barometer of the economy with the rest of the supply chain lagging three to six months. The retail sector’s economic predictions have been accurate throughout this downturn and it’s time our economists, who are doing a great job of frightening consumers into financial hibernation, listened to the retail experience. "Retailers will wait to hear this new dialogue of leadership. When it comes, consumer confidence will return and funds will flow from the retail hub through supply channels leading economic recovery," Evans said. For over 105 years, the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) has been the peak industry body in Australia’s $292 billion retail sector which employs over 1.5 million people. As an incorporated employer body under the Workplace Relations Act and with a range of member services including business consulting, policy development, advocacy and education, the ARA promotes and protects over 5000 independent and national retailers throughout Australia. Visit www.retail.org.au or call 1300 368 041. -ends-
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